Bucs (6-7) at Lions (3-9-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit
TV: Fox
Danny Sheridan’s line: Buccaneers by 31⁄2
Buccaneers’ keys to victory: Tampa Bay’s biggest challenge will be to avoid beating itself with turnovers, penalties and missed opportunities. It starts with QB Jameis Winston making better decisions and taking care of the ball. Plays like the terrible pick-six he threw against the Indianapolis Colts make it too easy for the opposing defense. OLB Shaq Barrett must consistently create pressure without sacrificing holes in the run game. Young CBs Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting need to stay disciplined and rebound quickly from bad play, something that has been a challenge for them.
Lions’ keys to victory: The defense has been far too passive this season. Detroit’s defensive playmakers, CB Darius Slay and S Tracy Walker, need to convert any opportunities to get the ball back for QB David Blough and the offense. Blough must attack the Buccaneers down the field, and the rookie does have some chemistry with big-play WR Kenny Golladay working. An aggressive mindset on offense, such as going for it on fourth-and-short instead of settling for long field goals by K Matt Prater, is a worthwhile gamble.
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers OLB Shaq Barrett vs. Lions LT Taylor Decker. Barrett leads the NFL in sacks with 15 in his breakout season. Decker has played well in pass protection but is prone to occasional lapses that can endanger his quarterback.
Who wins? The Buccaneers are tough to predict with their wild variability from week to week, but they have the better roster and play with more vitality.
Buccaneers, 31-20
Bucs schedule
L .... San Francisco .... 31-17 W ...... at Carolina ...... 20-14 L ...... N.Y.Giants ...... 32-31 W .... at L.A. Rams .... 55-40 L..atNewOrleans..31-24 L Carolina (London) 37-26
BYE
L .... at Tennessee .... 27-23 L .... at Seattle .... 40-34 OT W ......... Arizona ......... 30-27 L ..... New Orleans ..... 34-17 W ...... atAtlanta ...... 34-22 W .. at Jacksonville .. 28-11 W .... Indianapolis .... 38-35 Dec. 15 ...... at Detroit ...... 1 Dec. 21 ....... Houston ....... 1 Dec. 29 ....... Atlanta ........ 1
Lions schedule
T ....... at Arizona ....... 27-27 W ... L.A. Chargers ... 13-10 W .. at Philadelphia .. 27-24 L ...... Kansas City ...... 34-30
BYE
L .... at Green Bay .... 23-22 L ....... Minnesota ....... 42-30 W ...... N.Y. Giants ...... 31-26 L ...... atOakland ...... 31-24 L ...... atChicago ...... 20-13 L ........... Dallas ........... 35-27 L ... at Washington ... 19-16 L ......... Chicago ......... 24-20 L ..... atMinnesota ..... 20-7 Dec. 15 ..... Tampa Bay ..... 1 Dec. 22 ... at Denver ... 4:05 Dec. 29 ..... Green Bay ..... 1