CFP championship:
Who has the edge between No. 1 LSU and No. 3 Clemson? Eddie Timanus sizes up the big game.
The College Football Playoff championship game will feature No. 1 LSU (14-0) and No. 3 Clemson (14-0) in an all-Tigers showdown in New Orleans.
Here’s how they match up:
Passing
The first half of the season wasn’t the smoothest for Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence. But he appears to have regained the form he showed a year ago in leading the Tigers to the title. He enters the final with 3,431 passing yards and 36 touchdown passes. He has been intercepted eight times, double his total from a season ago. But he hasn’t thrown a pick since Oct. 19, and he’s improved his completion rate to 67.6%. His primary target is Tee Higgins with 56 catches for 1,156 yards and 13 touchdowns. Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers are also dangerous.
LSU’s aerial attack is operating on a completely different level. Heisman winner Joe Burrow has amassed 5,208 yards, 372 per game. His seven TD tosses in the Peach Bowl victory against Oklahoma – all in the first half – brought his total for the season to 55. Justin Jefferson’s four scoring grabs against the Sooners pulled him even with Ja’Marr Chase for the team lead with 18 receiving TDs, while Terrace Marshall has found the end zone 12 times himself. Tight end Thaddeus Moss, with 42 catches and a pair of scores, can’t be overlooked himself.
Edge: LSU.
Rushing
LSU squads of recent vintage have had a run-first identity on offense. That isn’t the case this year, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire still gives LSU a steady presence that doesn’t let opposing defenses forget about the ground game. He has 1,304 rushing yards, averaging 6.5 yards per carry, and 16 scoring runs. He saw only limited action in the Peach Bowl because of a hamstring injury, but the 16-day break before the finale should help him recover.
But the rushing star of the game could be Travis Etienne, a constant breakaway threat out of the Clemson backfield. He has amassed 1,536 yards on the ground in his junior campaign with 18 TDs and an 8-yard average per attempt. He also has four receiving TDs, two of which came in the Fiesta Bowl triumph against Ohio State.
Edge: Clemson.
Defense
Clemson leads the Football Bowl Subdivision in scoring defense (11.5 per game) and ranks third in fewest yards allowed (264.1).
But it’s fair to say the unit hasn’t encountered an offense of this caliber, even after handling Ohio State. The push from the front line isn’t quite what it was a year ago, but the Tigers have still accumulated 42 sacks on the season, thanks to some creative blitz packages from the excellent back seven. The unit’s leader is Isaiah Simmons, a linebacker-safety hybrid who does a little of everything. James Skalski and K’Von Wallace will also have a lot of responsibilities keeping LSU’s numerous weapons contained.
LSU isn’t quite as stingy, surrendering 339.9 yards per game, but it has playmakers on that side of the ball as well. Freshman cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has six interceptions, and outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson has a team-high 61⁄2 sacks.
Edge: Clemson.
Coaching
Dabo Swinney has been here before. Should Clemson prevail, he’ll have coached a third national championship team in four years. One of the constants on his staff has been defensive coordinator Brent Venables. LSU’s Ed Orgeron has his squad in the Playoff for the first time since he assumed the reins in 2015. His hire of passing game architect Joe Brady to join forces with offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger has led to this year’s offensive explosion.
Edge: Clemson.
Prediction
In the brief six-year history of the CFP, the top seed has yet to bring home the title. But that is about to change. LSU drew a good but not elite Oklahoma team while Clemson needed everything in its tank to get by Ohio State. The extended break should help Clemson a bit, but LSU will still be in much better shape at game time.
Pick: LSU, 48-34