Exposing Aaron:
A breakdown of Rodgers’ release times reveals the Packers’ QB has lost his magic in extending plays.
GREEN BAY, Wis. – For years, he torched the NFL whenever a play broke down. See Aaron Rodgers at his best, and he’s holding the football, holding the football, creating something out of nothing.
That brilliance is in sharp decline this season. For a Green Bay Packers offense that lags in the middle of the league, the successful extended play is endangered, cratering toward extinct.
It has sparked the question: Does Aaron Rodgers hold onto the football too long?
To better understand the effect of Rodgers’ release time, PackersNews clocked the time between snap and throw before each of his 571 passes this season, including a pair of 2-point conversions. Then we clocked Rodgers’ release time before every pass he threw in 2011, his best statistical season, to compare then to now.
The outcomes were cataloged in half-second intervals, with the exception of passes released within one second of the snap, which were grouped collectively. For this story, they were classified under three subdivisions: two seconds and under (quick passes), 2.01 to 4 seconds (multiple progressions or deep shots), and over 4 seconds (extended plays).
Side by side, the two seasons showed a minimal decline when Rodgers is on schedule in the offense, but the magic on extended plays that once separated him from other quarterbacks is all but gone. Just take a look at how Rodgers has performed in plays over four seconds:
2019 (15.93%): 39-91, 42.85%, 584 yards, 6.41 avg, 2 TD, 0 INT, 71.86 rating
2011 (13.4%): 40-67, 59.70%, 848 yards, 12.65 avg 10 TD, INT, 137.28 rating
Each pass play is tied to a specific quarterback drop: three steps, five steps, seven. Each route is tied to the drop, so a receiver completes it when the quarterback is ready to throw. Rodgers scans through his progressions at the snap. If he gets to his final progression, completing his checklist without identifying an open receiver, he must make a decision.
This is where Rodgers historically has been one of the game’s greatest. The key, he said, is one basic rule.
“Listening to my feet,” Rodgers explained. “Based on the rhythm, I know when the ball’s got to come out, or I’ve got to move, depending if I feel like the pocket allows.”
Almost any pass play lasting more than four seconds is, by definition, extended. In 2011, Rodgers and a group of receivers that included Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Randall Cobb and tight end Jermichael Finley were sublime. The Packers extended only 13.4% of their pass plays beyond four seconds that season – 2.53 percentage points less frequent than this season – but Rodgers threw a touchdown pass once every 6.7 passes. This season, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown once every 45.5 extended passes.
The difference in passer rating is colossal. Rodgers’ 137.28 rating on extended plays in 2011 must rank as one of the most impressive feats in recent quarterbacking. His 71.86 rating this season isn’t even pedestrian.
“That group,” Rodgers said of his 2011 receivers, “really understood the scramble drill, I think. We had guys, I mean, Jordy was the best ever with it. We had guys who really understood, I think, what that felt like, and where to get to in those drills. I think that’s been one of the bigger problems, and you’ve seen it when you watch the film out, is just not being on the same page in that scramble drill.
“Whether it’s guys boxing out instead of pushing up and coming back, or guys coming short when they should be going deep, or two guys running the same area, we just haven’t had the success.”
Behind Davante Adams, a former second-round pick, not a single receiver on the Packers roster was drafted before the fourth round. Marquez ValdesScantling, who has been in a slump with only five receptions since October, is the only other receiver who was drafted. The lack of pedigree is vastly different than that 2011 group, which included three receivers drafted in the second round, two drafted in the third and the franchise’s all-time receiving leader.
Rodgers emphasized the lack of chemistry on extended plays with his current receivers is about their experience with him on the field, not talent. When receivers enter the Packers’ offense, they’re faced with a different set of rules, because this is a different quarterback. They know the play doesn’t end with their route.
“I don’t know when it jelled,” Adams said, “but it takes a little bit of time. I don’t know if it can happen within a year, but it just depends on how many opportunities you get. It’s the reps. It’s nothing you can do unless, I mean, talking about it will help – but you need those game reps to make a difference.”
There are other factors beyond a new group of pass catchers. Head coach Matt LaFleur’s scheme-focused offense allows less freelancing, Rodgers said. With Mike McCarthy, the head coach from 2006 to 2018 who prioritized matchups, there was a smoother transition into the scramble drill. If Packers receivers didn’t win their matchup early in a play, chances were the play would extend.
Rodgers’ waning mobility is another factor. At 36, he is not the dynamic athlete he was at 28. Rodgers used his 4.66 speed to gain yards when plays broke down, yes, but also to dictate the defense, opening windows to throw.
“I feel like I have limited ability to get out of the pocket, I still run for first downs and extended plays,” Rodgers said. “We just haven’t been on the same page a lot of times in the scramble drill.”
Therein, perhaps, lies the answer.
Taking inventory of the Packers’ passing game this season, their strengths and weaknesses surface. For Rodgers, a different quarterback with a different skill group at a different stage in his career, the ideal balance between staying within the offense’s framework and extending plays has flipped.
The Packers are extending plays more frequently than even during his best season.
“I think,” Rodgers said, “we just don’t have that rapport because there are so many kind of new guys who don’t quite understand the scramble drill like that group did in ’11.”