Two 1 seeds in play with Kansas, Baylor locked in
Had Maryland won at Ohio State, the Terrapins would have vaulted up to become a projected No. 1 seed in USA TODAY Sports’ latest bracketology.
Instead, the Terrapins suffered a road loss Feb. 23 to the Buckeyes. While the defeat didn’t significantly damage Maryland’s NCAA tournament credentials, the setback cost it the opportunity to move past vulnerable No. 1 seeds Gonzaga and San Diego State, teams that were upset Saturday.
When assessing the profiles of the ’Zags (27-2) and the Aztecs (26-1), respectively, compared to Maryland, the Terrapins have too many losses (five). However, everything else falls in the Terrapins’ favor (including six Quadrant 1 wins and no Quad 2, 3 or 4 losses) should either San Diego State or Gonzaga falter again.
Gonzaga owns five Quadrant 1 victories while San Diego State has four. No. 2 seeds Duke and Dayton have four each, but it’s possible the Blue Devils (23-4, top-10 strength of schedule) or the Flyers (25-2) could vault ahead of Maryland to snag a top seed.Dayton has a NET score of 4, a top-25 non-conference strength of schedule and no losses outside of Quadrant 1. While Dayton’s also a mid-major, one more loss for Gonzaga (non-conference SOS of 242) or San Diego State (overall SOS of 101) could pave way for the Flyers to secure a No. 1 seed alongside locks Kansas and Baylor.
At the No. 3 line, Big East front-runner Creighton’s 22-point win over Butler on Sunday positions the Bluejays to potentially climb up to a No. 2 seed.
❚ No. 1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State.
❚ Last four in: Rutgers, Oklahoma, Utah State, Cincinnati.
❚ First four out: Richmond, Georgetown, Memphis, UCLA.
❚ Others considered for at-large bid (in order): Stanford, Arkansas, North Carolina-Greensboro, South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Clemson, Syracuse, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Purdue.
❚ On life support (in no particular order): Virginia Tech, Tulsa, Texas,
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Utah, St. John’s, Furman, Oregon State, Minnesota.
NCAA tourney explainer: Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 130 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 150 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 3175 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
Quadrant 3 wins, losses: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
Quadrant 4 wins, losses: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET
Note: Mostly all statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NCAA’s NET rankings are also a reference point.
About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his seventh season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past six March Madnesses. He has predicted for The Indianapolis Star and collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.