❚ Rodgers isn’t going anywhere just yet,
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
GREEN BAY, Wis. – If you think the Green Bay Packers drafted quarterback Jordan Love with the intention of trading Aaron Rodgers this year, there are tens of millions of reasons why you’re wrong.
General manager Brian Gutekunst selected Love with the 26th pick in the NFL draft knowing that Rodgers would have to be his quarterback for at least this year, probably the next two years, and if all goes well the next three.
The main reason is the quarterback’s massive contract.
The Packers made Rodgers the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL in August 2018 when they signed him to a four-year, $134 million extension.
He was 34 at the time and they felt there was a chance he could play until he was 40 years old.
Two years later, Rodgers has four years left on his deal, a new head coach and competition for his job. Nothing is forever, and Rodgers’ hold on the Packers’ quarterback position is going to end sometime in the near future.
But it’s not ending this year. Even if Rodgers decided he couldn’t play for the Packers, they would put themselves in a salary-cap mess if they traded him.
Rodgers isn’t going anywhere this year unless the Packers are willing to absorb a $29.5 million cap hit now or a $31.55 million cap hit next year. The decision would be theirs, but neither is a livable proposition.
Trading him now would mean he would count $51.1 million against the cap without being on the roster. In NFL cap terms, that is referred to as “dead money.”
And that’s not even the most important number. It is the $18 million the Packers would have to shave off their cap just to reach a zero balance if they traded him before June 1. Think about it.
They would gain nothing in salary-cap room if they cut either Za’Darius Smith or Preston Smith, so that’s off the table. The same with Billy Turner, Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage, Rashan Gary and Dean Lowry, all of whom would cost them cap money, not save it, if they were released.
They could get about $14 million if they cut center Corey Linsley, guard Lane Taylor, running back Jamaal Williams, cornerback Kevin King and offensive lineman Lucas Patrick. They could cut Tim Boyle, Alex Light, Tyler Lancaster, Robert Tonyan, Will Redmond, Chandon Sullivan and Jake Kumerow and only get about $1 million more.
In the end you’d have to cut left tackle David Bakhtiari or wide receiver Davante Adams to get back into salary-cap solvency.
Let us say the Packers decide to trade or cut Rodgers after June 1, which would cause them to inherit $31.55 million on next year’s cap.
It’s doable. They would start the offseason about $35 million under the salary cap based on 2021 salary figures and estimated additions from the 2020 draft class.
But that’s not a ton if you want to re-sign Bakhtiari and nose tackle Kenny Clark to monstrous extensions and retain some free agents from a group that includes Linsley, King, Williams, running back Aaron Jones, wide receiver Devin Funchess and linebacker Christian Kirksey.
It just wouldn’t make sense to do it this year, and unless Rodgers is injured or playing horribly, there’s no reason you wouldn’t have him around in 2021 as well.
After that, the salary cap doesn’t play into the decisionmaking as much because the cap hits aren’t as great. A lot will depend on how Love is progressing and Rodgers is playing.
To understand why the Packers are where they are with
Rodgers, you merely need to know the minimum salary-cap obligations that are tied to his deal. Any money paid upfront, such as a signing bonus, can be prorated for salary-cap purposes over a maximum of five years in any contract.
For instance, Rodgers received a $57.5 million signing bonus when he inked his extension. Since the deal came during the 2018 season and extended his contract through 2023, the five years in which the bonus could be spread out were 2018 to 2022. So in each of those years, his salary-cap number would be at a minimum $11.5 million.
Anything additional such as base salary, roster bonuses and workout bonuses are on top of that $11.5 million.
For instance, the $15 million in salary and bonuses he was due in 2019 made his salary-cap number $26.5 million for that season.
So, as we sit now, there are still $11.5 million in cap charges left for 2020, 2021 and 2022, plus salary and bonuses that would be voided if he were traded or cut.
But there are additional cap charges to consider.
At the end of last year, the Packers sought cap room in 2020 and paid out $11.408 million of the $19.5 million roster bonus Rodgers was due in March of 2020. Paying it early allowed them to treat it as a signing bonus and prorate the cap charge to $2.852 million over years 2019-23.
But don’t get too wrapped up in the how.
The bottom line is that for all but the last year of Rodgers’ contract, he has a standing cap charge of $14.352 million (the $11.5 million plus $2.852 million). There is no way those charges can be removed because they represent money that has already been paid.
And that is why the Packers aren’t going to trade or cut Rodgers anytime soon.