Neutral park can alter expectations
With all we’ve been through, it’s nice to talk about the start of baseball season again. With the MLB owners and the players union still addressing the details of a possible return, the issue of venues – where the teams would play games – is still in flux.
While it seems teams are pushing for playing in their home ballparks, it also could be probable that any additional coronavirus case spikes in MLB communities could send some teams to a neutral park to play their home games. If that’s the case, there could be some significant statistical departures from what current player projections have cited.
American League
The notorious right-field porch in Yankee Stadium boosts the power numbers of lefthanded hitters but also helps those who hit from the right side. Aaron Judge, who uses all parts of the field (81 of his 110 career home runs have been up the middle or to right field) might miss his home park’s dimensions. Infielder D.J. LeMahieu could also be affected; he hit 19 of his 26 HRs at home in 2019. Of course, newly acquired righthander Gerrit Cole might appreciate not dealing with lefty hitters aiming to pull the ball to right field.
In Chicago, plenty of home runs clear the right-field fence in Guaranteed Rate Field. Playing outside those friendly confines wouldn’t help Yoan Moncada, with 42 of his 50 career home runs as a left-handed hitter. Some of the White Sox pitchers might appreciate the change, though. Lucas Giolito broke out last year, but a 43% fly-ball percentage (FB%) contributed to some struggles at home (4.03 ERA, compared to 2.83 on the road). Reynaldo Lopez’s
FB% has been over 44% for the past three years.
Plentiful foul ground and deep dimensions give Oakland Coliseum a well-deserved reputation as a pitcher-friendly park. First baseman Matt Olson popped plenty of fly balls and totaled 36 homers last year. But imagine what could happen at a neutral site. Fifty of Olson’s career 89 home runs have been on the road, where his OPS is 100 points higher than at home. Sluggers Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Mark Canha and Khris Davis all hit more than 40% of their batted balls in the air in 2019 and could see increased production in another park. Fortunately for the Athletics, most of their young starters – think Jesus Luzardo, Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea – keep the ball on the ground and wouldn’t be as likely to be impacted by a park move.
Another well-known pitcher’s park, Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium, suppressed both left- and right-handed power by more than 15% over the past three years. While breakout star Jorge Soler was only mildly affected (27 HRs on the road, 21 at home) in his 2019 season, other hitters have had issues. Royals catcher Salvador Perez put the ball in the air 47% of the time in 2016-18, before missing the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Only 17 of his 56 HRs were hit at home in 2017-18. Hunter Dozier had a nice breakout in 2019, and a 44% fly-ball rate helped; but only eight of his 26 homers came at home.
National League
Any talk of park effects in the NL needs to start with the grandaddy of all hitter’s parks – Coors Field. Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado features a swing made for an elevated location, with a fly-ball rate over 44% in four of the last five years. In his career, he’s hit 129 HRs on the road with a .995 OPS; on the road, he’s at 98 HRs and a .799 OPS. Moving half of Arenado’s games out of Coors could definitely impact his power output.
He’s not alone, though. Shortstop Trevor Story also puts the ball in the air frequently, and certainly enjoys home cooking (79 HRs/.998 OPS at home; 44 HRs/.756 OPS on the road). And while outfielder Charlie Blackmon doesn’t hit the ball in the air as much, his career home/road split shows the same effect (97 HRs/.997 OPS home; 75 HRs/.743 OPS road). It’s no surprise that the entire Colorado offense could suffer if playing in a neutral park.
On the flip side, a neutral park would be more appealing for Rockies pitchers. Both German Marquez (49% groundball percentage in 2019) and Jonathan Gray (50%) would be even more effective in a neutral environment. Marquez, in particular, performed better than his 4.76 ERA in 2019 indicated; he could blossom into a fullfledged ace if no longer pitching in mile-high Denver.
Citizens Bank Park has proved to be quite homerfriendly recently, and losing those games might put frowns on the faces of some Philadelphia Phillies sluggers. Bryce Harper typically hits over 40% of his batted balls in the air, and took well to Philly, with 20 of his 35 HRs at home in 2019. Slugging first baseman Rhys Hoskins is even more extreme; he posted a 50% FB% the past two seasons and 46 of his 81 career home runs have been at home. Closer Hector Neris probably wouldn’t mind a neutral park, as he posted a 45% FB% in two of the past three years.
Players who call pitcher’s parks home will be affected, too. While bringing in the fences in 2020 might depress the reputation of San Francisco’s Oracle Park as the most extreme pitching venue in the league, the dimensions are still cavernous enough to tamp down home runs. The Giants’ Brandon Belt is a prime example of a hitter who could thrive in a neutral environment. Despite cranking plenty of fly balls (a FB% higher than 47% in the past three years), he’s yet to top 20 homers in his nine-year career. He’s hit 92 home runs away from home, and only 47 in Oracle.
Evan Longoria’s on a downward power trend, too. In two years in San Francisco, only 10 of his 36 dingers occurred at home; he’s also logged an OPS 150 to 200 points better on the road. On the flip side, newbie Drew Smyly – he of the 49% FB% in 2019 – probably appreciates Oracle’s spacious dimensions.
PETCO Park in San Diego owns a tradition of dampening offense. Manny Machado hit 32 homers in 2019, well split between home and road (15/17). But he produced better away from PETCO, as seen in a .882 OPS (.703 at home). New middle infielder Brian Dozier, whose power production waned as of late, hit over 40% of his batted balls in the air the past seven years. He’s unlikely to undergo a resurgence at PETCO. On the pitching side, while Chris Paddack posted a breakout rookie season, a 42% fly-ball rate could be a concern in a neutral site.