49ers (3-3) at Patriots (2-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. TV: CBS
Danny Sheridan’s line: Patriots by 3
49ers’ keys to victory: San Francisco can start by riding its running backs, which it does well plus the Patriots are susceptible to the run. New England has such a tough secondary that it’s sure to challenge QB Jimmy Garoppolo. RB Raheem Mostert should find running room, and if he can get into a rhythm, that will alleviate the pressure on Garoppolo, who tends to excel once he can work with play-action. The 49ers have to figure out how to defend against a mobile quarterback. We’ll see if LB Dre Greenlaw has answers.
Patriots’ keys to victory: New England needs to get QB Cam Newton comfortable again. He looked frazzled against the Raiders before missing time due to COVID-19. When Newton returned in Week 6, he looked equally challenged. The Patriots are best when they start by getting the ball in the hands of the running backs, particularly Damien Harris on the ground and James White in the passing game. That might help New England neutralize the 49ers’ best pass rusher, Nick Bosa.
Matchup to watch: 49ers TE George Kittle vs. Patriots S Kyle Dugger. New England may handle Kittle as they did Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: by committee. But even then the Patriots will likely predominantly put Dugger on Kittle. A 2020 second-round pick from Division II Lenoir-Rhyne, Dugger has been solid but not exceptional, which may spell a big game for Kittle, one of the NFL’s best.
Who wins? This is going to be a slugfest with good running back play and solid defensive performances.
Patriots, 23-21