49ers (4-5) at Saints (6-2)
Sunday, 4:25 ET, MercedesBenz Superdome, New Orleans TV: Fox
Danny Sheridan’s line: by 9
49ers’ keys to victory: Any success they hope to find on offense relies on pushing the ball down the field against a Saints team that has struggled to defend deep shots. That’s good news for QB Nick Mullens, who completed passes of 36, 41, 43 and 47 yards against Green Bay. WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are expected back after a stint on the COVID-19 reserve list. Pressuring Saints QB Drew Brees without blitzing him will be vital, because it might require bracketed coverage to slow down RB Alvin Kamara.
Saints’ keys to victory: It’s critical to limit big plays, but it’s just as important that they step up in their red zone defense. Few teams have done a worse job forcing opposing drives to end in field goals; the addition of former 49ers LB Kwon Alexander could help. When New Orleans has the ball, it needs to open up the field with passes down the seam to TE Jared Cook and WR Emmanuel Sanders, a run-after-catch threat.
Matchup to watch: 49ers CB Jason Verrett vs. Saints WR Michael Thomas. New Orleans will want to showcase Thomas in his second game back, and Verrett might be an appealing target. The 49ers’ nominal No. 1 cornerback has been targeted nine times in his last three games, allowing all nine passes to be completed for 117 yards, per Pro Football Focus.
Who wins? This would have been a terrific game if even half of San Francisco’s losses to injuries were back in the lineup, but this just wasn’t their year. Kyle Shanahan’s team will keep this one competitive, but the Saints are rolling.
Saints 30-20
Saints