Buccaneers (12-5) at Saints (13-4)
Sunday, 6:40 ET, MercedesBenz Superdome, New Orleans
TV: Fox
Danny Sheridan’s line: Saints by 3
Buccaneers’ keys to victory: Tampa Bay must clean up its mistakes on defense after allowing Washington to stick around. The Saints can take advantage of their coverage busts. Up front, it’s critical for DT Ndamukong Suh and his teammates inside to win their battles with a vulnerable New Orleans interior offensive line. On offense, WR Mike Evans has to create chunk plays through the air by defeating his opponents in oneon-one coverage. But that will be tough if the Bucs’ offensive line, whittled down by injuries, folds against a strong Saints pass rush.
Saints’ keys to victory: Dominate the trenches. On defense, that means putting QB Tom Brady under pressure throughout, which gets much easier if DE Trey Hendrickson can return from his neck injury. On the other side of the ball, the Saints have to lean on Tampa Bay’s defensive line and let RB Alvin Kamara run free against a linebacker corps. The Saints’ passing game has outmatched the Buccaneers’ secondary at times, but QB Drew Brees’ inconsistent game in the wild-card round might suggest there’s some rust left for them to knock off.
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis vs. Saints WR Michael Thomas. Thomas had a solid first game back from injury against the Bears but he may need to turn it up to a higher gear. That’s a tough sell against Davis, who held him to three catches for 17 yards in the season opener.
Who wins? The Saints have the Bucs’ number. Brees capitalizes on the Bucs’ defensive mistakes, and the pass rush gets after Brady.
Saints 30-20
– John Sigler Saints Wire