As talent rises, does pitching lag?
Six serviceable starters: Like many teams in 2021, the Mariners anticipate using a six-man rotation, driven in part by the shortened 2020 innings counts for their pitchers. Now, the hard part: finding six major league-quality starters.
The first two slots should be ably manned by Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield, the latter making a moderate breakthrough in 2020. The difference between a decent team and a dark horse contender could be Yusei Kikuchi, a disappointment over his first two seasons in Seattle, during which he’s posted a 5.39 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 41 starts. After that? Some combo of an opener(s) and late-winter veteran starter foraging, most likely.
“We’re going to continue to add depth,” says manager Scott Servais. “We feel the key to this next season will be depth; a lot of pitchers going through uncharted waters. Undoubtedly you’ll have injury or poor performance at some point.”
Whither Mitch Haniger? An All-Star in 2018, Haniger, 30, hasn’t played since June 2019 due to two surgeries on his core and a back injury. Servais said last month that Haniger has regained his strength and, after welcoming his first child into the world, is “in a really good spot physically and mentally.”
Haniger hit 26 home runs in 2018 and led the American League with 12 outfield assists. A return to health and productivity – he has a career .827 OPS – would lengthen and stabilize a lineup filled with promising but largely unproven hitters.
Small sample, or big problem? The Mariners committed guaranteed money to Evan White (six years, $24 million) before he’d played in a major league game, and they gave significant plate appearances to Shed Long. Both struggled mightily in their age-24 seasons.
While a 60-game season is far from a fair gauge, particularly for players in their first full seasons, 2021 brings a bit more urgency for both. With top prospects in the pipeline and the emergence of Kyle Lewis and Dylan Moore as apparent fixtures, the Mariners need to find out if White and Long can be everyday players, platoon options or merely utility types. White did hit eight home runs and, with guaranteed money in hand, should get plenty of latitude.
How soon is now? Forgive the Mariners if they’re beyond giddy to see what outfielders Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic can do at the major league level. Both are among the top 10 prospects in all of baseball, though their path to the majors was slowed by the 2020 minor league shutdown. Rodriguez and Kelenic will turn 21 and 22, respectively, this year and Rodriguez has just 622 minor league plate appearances due to a 2019 wrist fracture followed by the pandemic.
Servais said Rodriguez was particularly impressive during fall instructional league play in Arizona. It wouldn’t be
surprising by September to get a sneak peek at what could be a young, highly dynamic and productive outfield of Kyle Lewis, Kelenic and Rodriguez.
What now for top rookie? Lewis had a dazzling 2020 campaign – most notably a .364 OBP and 11 homers that translate to 30 over a full season - to become the Mariners’ first Rookie of the Year since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.
Now, for his 162-game debut. Perhaps it’s just a blip, but Lewis tailed off in the season’s final month, batting .147 over his final 22 games while striking out 33 times against 13 walks. Perhaps the 60-game schedule merely didn’t afford a chance for Lewis to counter the myriad adjustments pitchers made against him, but it will be intriguing to see what his true ceiling more closely resembles over a full season.
“I would expect the next step for Kyle,” Servais says, “would be the All-Star team.”