Patriots (3-4) at Chargers (4-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California TV: CBS
Tipico Sportsbook line: Chargers by 51⁄2
Patriots’ keys to victory: It starts with exploiting the Chargers’ run defense. Los Angeles is allowing 162.5 yards per game on the ground, which ranks last in the NFL. Meanwhile, New England is coming off a game in which it totaled 148 yards and four touchdowns on the ground against the Jets. Defensively, if there is one coach who knows how to slow down QB Justin Herbert, it’s Bill Belichick. New England needs to get creative with its pressure packages to rattle Herbert, whether that be sending blitzes or using stunts or twists. Disguising coverage schemes is just as important.
Chargers’ keys to victory: The Chargers need to utilize quick passes and play-action in the passing game. After seeing how the Ravens attacked Herbert, the Patriots are going to draw up something similar to get after him early and often. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi must be more efficient on early downs to put Herbert in more manageable situations. When facing the ground game, Los Angeles needs physicality at the point of attack to avoid holes from being opened up. The Bolts also need to lock down the middle of the field, where QB Mac Jones favors throwing.
Matchup to watch: Chargers’ Herbert vs. Patriots defense. Despite his rookie success, Herbert faced a road block against New England in 2020. He completed 26 of his career-high 53 attempts for 209 yards and two interceptions.
Who wins? The Chargers return from the bye with changes to the run defense, early-down play calling and special teams.
Chargers, 31-21