Chargers (6-5) at Cincinnati (7-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati
TV: CBS
Tipico Sportsbook line: Bengals by 3 ⁄2
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Chargers’ keys to victory: Prioritizing the run with RB Austin Ekeler could insulate QB Justin Herbert so that he won’t have to throw for 300 yards and rush for 90 more like he did in a Week 11 win. Not only do the Bengals struggle with tackling issues, it could lull them into giving up big plays to WR Mike Williams. Defensively, the Chargers should stack the box to compensate for one of the league’s worst rush defenses and hope pressure from DE Joey Bosa can hit before Bengals wideouts shake loose.
Bengals’ keys to victory: Attack with RB Joe Mixon. He gets a Chargers defense that has surrendered an average of more than 130 rushing yards per game. Effective running can make a strong passrush irrelevant, never mind make the connection between QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase simpler. Defensively, limiting Hebert seems nearly impossible, but if DE Trey Hendrickson can keep playing at an elite level, it could mean keeping more guys back in coverage in an effort to limit his options.
Matchup to watch: Chargers DE Bosa vs. Bengals’ offensive line. If Bosa gets pressure on his own, he has game-breaking potential. But Burrow is one of the NFL’s best against blitzes and if the Chargers have to bring extra, it could dramatically swing things the other direction.
Who wins? Burrow-Herbert is worth a prime-time spotlight, but Mixon could help the Bengals squat on a lead against a team that has needed five fourth-quarter comebacks over six wins.
Bengals, 27-20