Patriots (8-4) at Bills (7-4)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
TV: ESPN
Tipico Sportsbook line: Bills by 3 ⁄2
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Patriots’ keys to victory: New England has to play a two-dimensional game on offense against the top-tier Bills’ defense to keep Buffalo on its toes. More important, QB Mac Jones and Co. need to protect the football and not give Buffalo extra chances. Defensively, New England head coach Bill Belichick should scheme up anything and everything to stop Bills QB Josh Allen. If Allen gets rolling, he’s tough to stop. What’s not tough to stop is Buffalo’s rushing attack.
Bills’ keys to victory: They go where Allen takes them. The best way to get the quarterback going is through his top target. The Bills should feed WR Stefon Diggs early and often, even if he’s covered by CB J.C. Jackson throughout the contest. Diggs’ success opens up the rest of the offensive playmakers Buffalo has. On defense, the Bills have to do what they can to weather the storm without CB Tre’Davious White. Their No. 1 defensive back’s season ended due to a torn ACL suffered in the Thanksgiving win over the Saints. The safety tandem of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer has to step up.
Matchup to watch: Patriots WR Nelson Agholor vs. Bills CB Dane Jackson. A seventh-round pick of the Bills in 2020, Jackson is in the spotlight. The Bills love his potential but he’ll be tested.
Who wins? The Bills swept the Patriots last season, and that streak should extend but in a tight one. The difference could be homefield advantage and the Bills getting healthier along their offensive line, returning G Jon Feliciano and rookie OT Spencer Brown.
Bills, 27-24