Will the Warriors, Suns meet in Western finals? Early signs say yes
The first Warriors-Suns matchup this week in Phoenix could very well be an early preview of this season’s NBA Western Conference finals.
The Lakers are expected to have a say in that despite playing .500 ball so far.
The Jazz certainly are in the conversation.
The Nuggets will be better once Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. return, while the Clippers will squeak into the postseason and be the toughest seventh or eighth seed ever if they can get Kawhi Leonard back for the playoffs.
The Mavericks and Blazers have a puncher’s chance with Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard, respectively, but all those teams aren’t the Warriors or Suns right now.
The NBA’s top two teams are winning with defense first.
The Warriors (18-2 entering the week) were first in defensive rating while the Suns (17-3) were third. They each had a primary defender who can guard multiple positions – Draymond Green for Golden State, Mikal Bridges for Phoenix.
They both have depth, are top 10 in 3-point shooting percentage, have a clear and defined identity and are wellcoached.
The major difference right now is the Warriors have Stephen Curry, who is a leading MVP candidate.
Chris Paul is a future firstballot Hall of Famer, Devin Booker is a rising superstar, but Curry is one of the game’s top five players who draws so much attention.
You must defend him right inside halfcourt or he’ll pull up from arena logos and knock it down.
Bridges will draw the initial assignment on Curry.
His length, athleticism and ability to move laterally is a problem, but Golden State will force switches to give Curry more favorable matchups.
Paul isn’t backing down from any challenge. Neither is Booker, but Golden State will take those matchups with Curry than Bridges guarding him any day.
On the other end, Deandre Ayton will be a problem if he’s active on the offensive boards. The Warriors don’t have anyone who can handle him in that area, but Draymond Green is all about that life.
He’ll most definitely take on that challenge and try to get in Ayton’s head with physicality and friendly conversation.
Before the shot goes up, Phoenix forces teams to either take away the roll to the rim or the 3.
What that does is give Booker and Paul liberty to go to work from midrange.
The key to that is can those two make enough twos to offset the number of 3s Golden State will hit, but the Warriors have multiple perimeter guys who will fight over screens and do all they can to contest those midrange attempts.
Curious to see how the Warriors look when Klay Thompson and James Wiseman return. If Thompson is at least 80% of the player he was before the injuries, and that’s asking a lot, Golden State will be almost unguardable.
Imagine doubling Curry and leaving Thompson open?
That’s championship Warriors basketball.
Wiseman will give the Warriors the size and athleticism they lack, but how good he is at this level remains an unknown. Talent is there, but is he a difference-maker?
Frank Kaminsky is out indefinitely with a stress reaction in the same right knee that had a patella stress fracture, keeping him out for months in the 201920 season. He’s a third big, but an important one who showed he can get it done when Ayton missed six games with a leg injury
this season.
Still, the Suns have their core back from the team that reached last season’s NBA Finals with the addition of JaVale McGee, who won two championships with Golden State, and Landry Shamet.
Those two are not only big parts of the second unit, but are playing key minutes with the starters, too.
By the time Golden State and Phoenix meet a third time in Phoenix on Christmas Day, they may very well have further separated themselves from the pack in the West.
By season’s end, the Warriors and Suns might be 1-2 going into the conference playoffs unless the Lakers find themselves and play up to their big names.
“We’re not working for today,”
Ayton said. “We’re working for the big stage. I’m glad we have a swag and mentality to where we’re just winning games and working on us. Not just trying to go out here and beat teams, but we’re working on something way bigger than what the league is thinking, especially for the long, long run.”
Ayton, for one, hasn’t let the praise he received in his first playoff run last season cloud some realities of that experience.
“I saw the flaws and the mistakes and stuff that I should’ve done in the playoffs and Finals, especially the Finals,” Ayton said. “I didn’t like the way I performed in the Finals.”
Giannis Antetokounmpo got the better of him in the NBA Finals in leading Milwaukee past
Phoenix in six games after the Suns were up 2-0. So Ayton came into the season looking to be more of an offensive force and has been that since returning from a right leg injury that kept him out of six games.
“I’m trying to be more of a threat,” Ayton said. “I’m trying to make a mark and trying to get used to certain things I wasn’t used to doing but I’m used to doing because it’s my playing style as well.”
The 6-foot-11 Ayton had averaged 16.4 points on 68.1% shooting and 11.6 rebounds in his eight games back from injury as he had posted five double-doubles during that stretch. Phoenix, in turn, had won 16 games in a row to race to the NBA’s second-best record.
The Warriors had the best.