How far can Duke advance in Coach K’s final tournament?
The final NCAA Tournament of Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s career will send the Blue Devils to Greenville, South Carolina, as the No. 2 seed in the West Region.
They’ll open up against No. 15 Cal State Fullerton, the winners of the Big West Conference tournament.
While the program’s postseason track record under Krzyzewski is nearly unrivaled – he’s claimed five national championships – there have been slipups in the first round: Duke has lost in the opening game four times under Krzyzewski, including a memorable loss to Lehigh as a No. 2 seed in 2012.
But bigger challenges await should the Blue Devils get past the Titans, beginning with a matchup against the winner of No. 7 seed Michigan State against No. 10 Davidson for the right to advance into the Sweet 16.
How far can Duke advance in Krzyzewski’s final tournament? Is a trip to the Final Four a possibility – or even a sixth national championship? Several factors will determine how far the Blue Devils can go.
First-round matchup
Cal State Fullerton finished second in the Big West regularseason standings to Long Beach State but got the better of the Beach in the conference tournament, using a late defensive stop to earn a 72-71 win and the fourth NCAA Tournament bid in program history. While the last two have ended in the first round, the Titans did advance to the Elite Eight in 1978, when the tournament had a 32-team field. Look for the Blue Devils to be
heavy favorites against Fullerton, which didn’t take on a major-conference opponent during the regular season.
Playing for the Sweet 16
A win against the Titans would pit the Blue Devils against either the Spartans, who finished tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games out of first, or Davidson, which claimed the Atlantic 10 Conference regular-season title but lost to Richmond in the conference championship game. Should Davidson beat Michigan State and reach the second round for the first time since getting to the Elite Eight behind Stephen Curry in 2008, the Wildcats could challenge Duke with an offense ranked 11th in the country, per the Ken Pomeroy efficiency ratings.
Who could be next
Let’s start in the Sweet 16, where the Blue Devils would
most likely take on No. 3 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders’ experience and defensive mindset would present a serious challenge to a younger Duke team loaded with one-and-done contributors. Getting past Tech – or maybe one of No. 6 Alabama or the winner of No. 11 seeds Rutgers and Notre Dame, if they’re lucky – would pit Duke against the biggest challenge of all: No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga. In other words, there is not an easy path to the Final Four.
Biggest strength
It’s the talent, pure and simple. Duke could have as many as five NBA first-round picks this spring, starting with leading scorer Paolo Banchero (17.0 points per game). The freshman has topped 20 points in four of his last six games. Four players join him in averaging double digits: junior forward Wendell Moore Jr. (13.5 ppg), freshman guard Trevor Keels (11.8 ppg), sophomore center Mark Williams
(10.9 ppg) and freshman forward AJ Griffin (10.4 ppg). When playing as a group – which was the case for a good chunk of ACC play – these baby Blue Devils can be a handful.
Biggest weakness
As with almost any group dominated by first- and second-year players, the Blue Devils are in a constant battle with consistency. This sort of unpredictability cropped up down the stretch, leading to a double-digit loss against North Carolina on March 5 and a loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game. And then there’s the question of how an uninspired ACC really prepared Duke for the rigors of tournament play. While the Blue Devils beat a number of eventual tournament teams in the regular season, the challenges posed by the ACC may not be equal to what Duke will face in potential matchups in the Sweet 16 and beyond.
Who needs to step up?
For the Blue Devils as a whole, the key to a deep tournament run will be the play of a defense that has cratered in March. Duke has given up 82.8 points in its last four games. On the offensive end, Duke needs to balance out strong interior play from Banchero with strong outside shooting from Griffin and Moore. Griffin has connected on 46.7% of his 3point attempts; Duke is 11-0 when he makes at least three shots from deep. Moore has made 40.2% of his 3-point tries. The Blue Devils also need Moore, a junior captain, to be a steadying presence as the lead guard.