Leading OFF
In fantasy football, receivers may rule the roost this season
It’s time to prepare the path to your fantasy football championship. Fortunately, the torrent of hype and hope surrounding each player means each draft shares an amazing similarity in who goes where. You may not get the exact player you want at a certain spot, but you can make intelligent decisions about how to pursue the positions that make up your optimal roster.
Where can you gain advantages in 2023 drafts?
Like most years, fantasy drafters constantly grab running backs and wideouts throughout, but what will you do at quarterback and tight end? Those positions require only one fantasy starter each week. No amount of mixing and matching at those positions will equal what just one elite player provides all year. And they are highly reliable players at the top.
Here’s a look at how you can expect drafts in typical 12-team leagues to unfold this season:
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks score the most of any position in most leagues. And the position is showing up earlier in drafts in recent years. The top three from 2022 – Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts — are the first signal callers taken this year. Mahomes and Allen have been top 10 for the last four years and each have a couple of No. 1 finishes over that span. Hurts is a newcomer to the elite tier and is reasonably expected to remain. All three will likely be gone by the third round and either Mahomes or Allen may cost a second-round pick.
The next three may not win your league, but they won’t be why you lost it. That tier includes Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson who
have all reached top-five status in previous years. They’ll go by the fifth or sixth rounds to those looking for at least a small advantage. If you are the sort that waits on the position, at least go for the higher upside of Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence or Deshaun Watson by the end of the ninth round. And if you’ve historically waited on the position, how’s that worked out for you? Maybe it is expensive, but rostering one of the top fantasy scorers in your league is always an advantage.
Running backs
This is the year of opportunity for running backs. And for tremendous risk. So ... do you feel lucky?
Aside from Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler among the first five overall picks, there’s much less consensus than ever with the position. These NFL players are devalued despite the outsized contributions
to their offense. That’s caused an unprecedented number of holdouts, “hold-ins,” talented free agents, unwelcome franchise tags and major question marks in at least half of the backfields. The best rusher from each NFL team can last into the seventh round.
The NFL may be a passing league, but the player with the most touches is always a primary running back. Fantasy leaguers respond to this dilemma by loading up on top wide receivers initially and then sorting through the remaining bin of running backs. You can expect four to six teams having no more than one running back at the start of the fifth round. In the fourth round, you’ll still see players like Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker and Miles Sanders available. In most leagues, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Isaiah Pacheco and Alexander Mattison will finally be drafted by the end of the seventh round.
Given the uncertainty, it’s a good idea to load up on the lowest risk options at all positions, and taking your chances with running backs from Rounds 4 to 7. There will be some incredible draft values for your backfield once it is all settled and players lock into who they are and where they play. There is a ton of risk before this happens.
Wide receivers
This is the year of the wideout. While the number taken in the first two rounds is not up dramatically, opening the draft with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase is a new twist for fantasy leagues that historically begin with the previous season’s best running backs.
However, wide receivers are commanding at least half of the picks made in this year’s first two rounds. At least three or four teams start with two wideouts before considering another position, and those elite passcatchers offer consistent and reliable fantasy points.
Only one of the top 10 running backs of 2021 repeated that standing last year (Austin Ekeler). All others failed to repeat a difference-making season. For wideouts, about half of them repeated. Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs all recorded their third straight top-10 performances.
Expect at least five wide receivers per round to be drafted. There are no big values in the position because they’ve become the new “running backs” in fantasy drafts — highly coveted and stripped of the top 30 by the end of Round 6. The top rookies of 2022 — Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Drake London — are gone by the fourth round. The receivers in the top 30 are also more reliable because only DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley are playing on new teams. If you get rattled and need to make a quick pick, grab the best wideout you can.
Tight ends
You need to decide if you want to pay the price for a difference-maker at the lowest-scoring skill position. Travis Kelce’s monster 2022 (110 catches, 1,338 yards, 12 TD) means that once the top three wideouts and running backs are taken, he’s usually the next to be drafted. No other fantasy player dominates a position like he does. If reception points are involved, Kelce is a steal anywhere beyond that No. 7 overall pick.
There is still an advantage in rostering a top tight end. Consider the rounds where value is drained — Mark Andrews (3rd), T.J. Hockenson (4th), George Kittle (5th), Dallas Goedert and Kyle Pitts (6th). Beyond that, at least look for upside with Evan Engram, Darren Waller and David Njoku all well-positioned to improve on their production.