Which players offer the most value at their ADP?
C: Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays
Kirk’s disastrous 2023 campaign has dropped him from a must-start player to a late-round backup. That’s where the value lies. Despite seeing most of his offensive metrics drop considerably last season, Kirk still consistently made contact. Kirk may never be able to replicate his 2022 campaign, but he’s definitely capable of providing starter value. We’ve already seen an elite fantasy season from Kirk, so a late-round pick on a thin position could be a worthwhile risk.
1B: Rhys Hoskins, Brewers
A .245 average, 30 homers, 90 RBI. That’s what Hoskins accomplished practically every year from 2018 to 2022. Those are very, very solid numbers. Assuming he has fully recovered from his ACL tear, we can expect similar production. Obviously, Hoskins is in a worse situation with the Brewers than he was with the Phillies, and American Family Field is a downgrade offensively compared to Citizens Bank Park. That said, Hoskins has a lot of power.
2B: Gavin Lux, Dodgers
Prior to a season-ending ACL tear last season, there was a lot of hype surrounding Lux, who had reportedly added 6 miles per hour to his swing. Now, that hype has mostly disappeared, but if those reports were true, Lux could be in for a massive breakout that Dodgers fans have been expecting for years.
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates
The biggest problem facing Hayes has always been his inability to rack up extra-base hits. However, that changed in the second half of 2023, slashing .299/ .335/.539 with 10 homers over the final two months of the season. And while most people still consider him a singles machine, he’s now shown potential for a serious offensive breakout.
SS: Dansby Swanson, Cubs
If you heard that a player was going to hit 25 home runs with 10 stolen bases and a batting average around .250, you’d think he was a must-start. That’s about what is expected from Swanson. However, given the depth at the shortstop position, Swanson has fallen down draft boards tremendously. The reality is that the shortstop position has gotten so deep that you can wait until the later rounds.
OF: Mike Trout, Angels
It’s shocking that Trout is going as late as the seventh round in some drafts. Sure, he no longer gets the opportunity to hit alongside Shohei Ohtani, but Trout put up MVP numbers multiple times before Ohtani. Since then, Trout has taken a step back, but he seems ready to play at full health again heading into 2024. Keep in mind, last year was the worst season of Trout’s career statistically, and he still posted a 131 OPS+. For perspective, 130 is considered Hall of Fame level. The biggest knock against Kepler has always been his quality of contact. However, Kepler posted a career-high 47% hard-hit rate last season at the cost of some strikeouts. He also posted a career-high 21.6% strikeout rate. However, that trade-off doesn’t seem very dangerous considering Kepler still put up a .271 expected batting average and a .503 expected slugging percentage in 2023.
SP: Luis Severino, Mets
It’s easy to forget just how good Severino was in 2022. He posted a 3.18 ERA and 3.70 FIP. However, 2023 was vastly different. Severino did not do anything well. Fortunately for Severino buyers, there are reports that he was tipping pitches last season. If that is fixed, there is a great chance that Severino returns to his 2022 form this year. It’s a prove-it season for Severino, who is playing on a one-year contract with the Mets.