The biggest potential fantasy baseball busts
2B: Nico Hoerner, Cubs
Much of Hoerner’s value from a year ago came in the stolen base department. However, Hoerner more than doubled his previous career best in that department last season, and expecting that type of production on the base paths again is a little too optimistic. Hoerner doesn’t provide much in many other departments, with a minuscule .383 slugging percentage. At his current ADP, he’s not worth it.
3B: Max Muncy, Dodgers
If Muncy can get his batting average up, he’d be a phenomenal fantasy baseball player. However, that average has been tumbling and tumbling for far too long, and at this point it would not be at all shocking if the Dodgers opted to platoon Muncy with Miguel Rojas or Chris Taylor whenever lefties are on the mound. Muncy is great, but playing time could be an issue in 2024, so steer away from him at his current ADP.
OF: Lane Thomas, Nationals
Is Lane Thomas worth drafting? Yes. Is he worth drafting in the first 10 rounds? Probably not. Thomas’ slugging percentage was far higher than his expected slugging (.436) a season ago. That’s not a good sign. Let’s also not forget that this is the same guy whose career OPS in the minor leagues was just .755. Thomas can still get 20 stolen bases and a .720 OPS. There is value in that, but not at his current ADP.
OF: Christopher Morel, Cubs
Morel is a great power hitter, but not as great as people might think. Outside of the nine home runs he hit in a 12-game stretch last season, Morel was on pace for a 25-30 home run season. Solid, but not the 40-50 home runs that some people are expecting. Morel still has lots of work to do on his plate discipline. He has an abysmal 28.9% chase rate and 37% whiff rate. Pitchers should know not to throw him pitches in the zone this time around, and that could be devastating to Morel’s output.
OF: James Outman, Dodgers
Much like Morel, Outman struggles to make contact, with an atrocious 36.6% whiff rate. That’s not the most troubling statistic though. Many of Outman’s expected metrics were pretty mediocre, with expected slugging (.396) and expected batting average (.228) being the most paramount. His subpar average exit velo of 87.9 is also worrisome. All in all, just not worth taking the risk on Outman with where he’s going at the moment.
SP: Kyle Bradish, Orioles
Keep your torches away. Let the numbers speak for themselves. If there was a pitcher who saw his ERA drop from near-5.0 to sub-3.0 in a year, but also saw the exit velocity against and hardhit contact rate increase in that same stretch, would you think he got lucky? I haven’t even mentioned how that pitcher was the beneficiary of a criminally low .271 BABIP. Bradish checks all of these boxes. Don’t touch him at his current ADP.
RP: Alexis Diaz, Reds
Is Diaz a good pitcher? Yes. There’s no denying that. However, where Diaz is going currently is too rich. Why? Diaz is a reliever who somehow recorded nine wins last year. That’s not going to happen again. Furthermore, experts are predicting the Reds to take a step back as a whole this season, meaning fewer save opportunities for Diaz altogether.