Riskiest players to draft
Jonah Heim recorded 95 RBI last season, which is remarkable for the catcher position. However, his secondhalf collapse was ugly. After slashing .282/.338/.474 in the first half, Heim cannonballed back down to Earth, recording a .217/.283/.374 triple-slash in the second half. Of course, as part of a loaded Texas lineup, Heim will always have opportunity to drive in runs, plus his great defense will keep him in games most of the time.
3B: Josh Jung, Rangers
Will he return to his pre-thumb injury form? If he does, then 30 home runs and 100 RBI are certainly within the realm of possibility. If not though, Jung could be a sub-.250 hitter with not enough pop to overcome his downfalls. You can expect a lot of strikeouts with Jung, but that’s only bad if Jung’s power is in fact hindered. Plus, with a full year of data on him now, pitchers should be attacking him.
1B: Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals
Prior to his labrum surgery in 2023, Pasquantino was pushing top-100 ADP. He was, and still very well may be, a great fantasy ballplayer, but that injury could take a serious toll on him. He is still recovering from that surgery as well, so tread carefully. Although there may be 30-homer potential, there may be sub-.220 average potential.
OF: Jorge Soler, Giants
There’s no denying Soler’s power. However, in the unrelenting battle between hitter and ballpark, ballpark wins most of the time. Oracle Park is a pitcher’s haven and is notoriously tough against righties. Soler needs 30 home runs to be a top-tier outfield option in fantasy. However, 22-27 homers is the most likely outcome.
OF: Nick Castellanos, Phillies
Castellanos has been a bit of a question mark in recent years. 2022 was abysmal, but the former Detroit Tiger bounced back nicely in 2023 to the tune of 29 homers and 106 RBI. It’s just too tough to shake the thought of that horrendous
2022 campaign though. Castellanos is entering his age-32 season, and we’ve already seen what a down season looks like from him.
OF: Jarred Kelenic, Braves
His skill set is just too good for him to stay bad for the entirety of his career, right? We saw signs of a bounce back in 2023, but Kelenic has yet to put together a full season of above-average offense. He could get lost in a crowded Atlanta dugout.
SP: Louis Varland, Twins
The positives are in his metrics. In 2023, over 20% of fly balls against Varland were home runs, which was the fourth-highest rate among starters with at least 50 innings pitched a season ago. That will likely come back down. Varland boasts a stellar fourpitch arsenal that should see more success with more experience. The biggest problem is that Varland is competing for a spot at the back end of the Twins rotation, meaning he’ll likely be on a very short leash.
RP: Paul Sewald, Diamondbacks
In his first full season as a closer, Sewald broke out for the Mariners and Diamondbacks, recording 34 saves and a 3.12 ERA. But playoff hero Kevin Ginkel lurks. Ginkel pitched 11.2 scoreless innings during the 2023 postseason and was a big factor in Arizona’s shocking race to an NL pennant. If Sewald starts struggling, Ginkel is waiting. And although Sewald has been lights out since 2021, his whiff percentage has slowly fallen off.