Sanctions, coercion aren’t working
Start direct talks with Pyongyang
A high-level overture from the Obama administration to Kim Jong Un is the one option that might slow or reverse the dangerous spiral of escalation on the Korean Peninsula.
The other policy choices are all bad.
Despite the hysteria in North Korea, the idea that the U.S. is going to start a war — with all its disastrous consequences — to take out Pyongyang ’s nuclear arsenal is far-fetched.
All the evidence shows that sanctions and coercion don’t work. North Korea has acquired what it needed for weapons, and every North Korean nuclear test has been in part a response to U.S.-led sanction efforts at the United Nations.
As we have seen in recent weeks, increased military pressure simply produces more of the negative actions it is intended to deter.
When U.S. B-52s conducted a practice bombing run on the Korean Peninsula in mid-March, for example, North Korea threatened to attack U.S. bases in Japan and Guam.
When a U.S. B-2 stealth bomber followed with a similar flight at the end of the month, Pyongyang declared that North-South relations were in a “state of war.”
Critics assert that talking to North Korea will reward “bad behavior,” and that only when Kim Jong Un is willing to discuss giving up his nuclear weapons will negotiations be warranted.
But this precondition will simply ensure that no negotiations take place, particularly when our military exercises convince the regime that having nukes is essential for its own security. And without talks, the North will steadily increase its nuclear arsenal.
Pyongyang ’s decision to restart weapons production at its mothballed Nyongbyon nuclear reactor is just the latest evidence that the U.S. approach is not working.
In the North Korean system, the top leader makes all key decisions. Yet no U.S. official has ever met Kim Jong Un, taken his measure, or been able to spell out directly the danger he is courting and what an alternative path might offer.
Instead, it seems that the U.S. is responding to the daily threats that appear in the North Korean media, without any sense of what the new leader is actually like.
Merely talking to North Korea should not be seen as a concession or act of weakness. In this highly charged climate, direct talks offer the best chance to prevent a bad situation from getting even worse.