OREGON, BAYLOR, OKLA. STATE REVIVED
New Year’s Day came and went. As the calendar flipped to the unofficial start of college basketball conference play, three teams — Oklahoma State, Oregon and Baylor — were ranked in the top 15 of the polls and had combined for a sparkling 35-2 record.
All three were expected to contend for their conference titles, and at least two were garnering respect and consideration as potential Final Four dark horses.
You know what happened next: The three went into free falls.
Oregon lost five consecutive games en route to a 3-8 start in Pac-12 play. Baylor lost five in a row and started 2-8 in the Big 12. Oklahoma State took the cake, losing seven in a row, including three without suspended star guard Marcus Smart.
All three teams spent time on the proverbial NCAA tournament bubble. Now, they are near locks to make the field of 68 and stand as three of the most dangerous teams likely headed to the Big Dance. That’s almost ludicrous. But that’s what happens when you suffer a dreadful losing streak in the nation’s best conferences. There’s always a chance you can rise again.
For Oregon, the sense of urgency originated when the Ducks were 2-5 in conference play, heading into games against UCLA, Southern California, Arizona and Arizona State. They beat USC but lost the other three games, each by two points.
“We felt like our backs were against the wall then,” Oregon coach Dana Altman told USA TODAY Sports on Sunday. “After those games, we really felt like we had to play well. The guys read all that stuff; they knew we needed to win games. At 3-8 in the league, we knew we had to finish really strong.”
Altman said there hasn’t been much of a difference between the way his team played during its rough patch and how it has played the last seven games — which have all resulted in wins. During the seven-game stretch, Oregon has beaten two RPI top-50 teams, including No. 3 Arizona on Saturday.
“When you’re losing close ballgames like that, you’re pretty close but you’ve got to get a couple more stops, a couple more rebounds, execute a little bit better,” Altman said. “I think that’s what we’ve done down the stretch.
“I was never really upset or displeased with the guys, because it wasn’t like they weren’t competing. We just weren’t getting the plays made that we needed to make. It was frustrating for them. It was frustrating for all of us. To their credit, they were resilient, kept playing and bounced back.”
It has helped that the Ducks play in the Pac-12, which boasts the third-best conference RPI and might get as many as six teams into the NCAA tournament. Oklahoma State and Baylor, too, benefited greatly from playing in the Big 12, the nation’s best and toughest conference.
“They had more opportunities to play better teams,” USA TODAY Sports bracketologist Shelby Mast said.
“Like Louisville, I’ll just throw them out there. If they had gone on a five- or six-game winning streak against the bottom of their conference (American Athletic), that would have hardly registered.
“But Baylor and Oklahoma
State played in a tough conference. They were playing pretty tough competition every day just about.”
Oklahoma State followed up its skid with a four-game winning streak, including two top-50 wins (Kansas, Kansas State).
Baylor has been perhaps most impressive: The Bears are winners of seven of their last eight games — with five top-50 victories.
Seeding remains complicated for the three teams, particularly Baylor, which has eight top-50 wins but also 10 losses overall. In Mast’s latest bracket projection, he has the Bears as a No. 8 seed.
Oregon and Oklahoma State could rise to that seed line, too, though they could dip a little, depending on what the NCAA basketball committee thinks of their roller-coaster résumés (and how much of an impact there will be from Smart’s suspension).
But no matter the complexities of seeding, the question of selection seems all but answered for these three teams: They’ve played their way in.
They’ve also done it in a way that has made them dangerous.
“If you’re filling out a bracket, you’re going to watch to see who Oklahoma State, Baylor and Oregon are playing,” Mast said.
“They’ve got the potential, the players that can make a run. I don’t know if I’d say Final Four, but Sweet 16 for sure — maybe Elite Eight if they get the right matchups.”