Cinderellas, sleepers, busts,

PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 simulations of the NCAA tournament bracket Sunday night. Based on those simulations, here are teams to stand by and some to avoid when projecting results the next three weeks. CINDERELLAS

Double-digit seeds with the best chance to reach the Sweet 16:

Providence, the East’s No. 11 seed, has a 20.3% chance of reaching the Sweet 16. The Friars won the first championship tournament of the new Big East and face No. 6 North Carolina on Friday in San Antonio.

Other teams with similar chances include South No. 10 seed Stanford (18.8%), West No. 12 seed North Dakota State, Midwest No. 10 seed Arizona State (17.2%) and Midwest No. 11 seed Tennessee (29.9% if it can win its play-in game). SLEEPERS

Teams seeded fifth or worse with the best chance to reach the Final Four:

South No. 5 seed VCU has a difficult round-of-64 matchup with Stephen F. Austin, which is unbeaten since a November loss to Texas and is second to only VCU in turnovers created per game. But the Rams, who made the Final Four in 2011, have an 11.3% chance to make it to AT&T Stadium in April.

Other teams seeded fifth or worse with the best chances of making the Final Four include South No. 6 seed Ohio State (8.3%), West No. 6 seed Baylor (7.0%), West No. 7 seed Oregon (7.0%) and South No. 7 seed New Mexico (6.8%). BUSTS

Teams seeded fourth or better with the worst chance of reaching the Elite Eight:

The highest-seeded team with the least chance to make it past the Sweet 16 is Kansas. The Jayhawks, the South Region’s No. 2 seed, have only a 23.2% chance of making the regional final. Those odds are better than those of some of their peers, however.

UCLA, the No. 4 seed in the South, has a 16.8% chance of the making the Elite Eight, West No. 4 seed San Diego State has an 18.6% chance, East No. 3 seed Iowa State has a 20% chance and South No. 3 seed Syracuse has a 21.5% chance. MOST LIKELY FINAL FOUR

Florida, Louisville, Michigan State and Creighton. BEST REGION

The Midwest has a 31.1% chance of fielding the national champion.

STEVEN BRANSCOMBE, USA TODAY SPORTS No. 12 seed North Dakota State, the Summit League champion, has Cinderella potential, according to PredictionMachine.com.