What “Nebrasketball” tells us about predictions,
Nebraska coach gets last laugh with NCAA berth
Forget records and RPIs. Throw out shooting percentages and defensive statistics. Don’t bother looking at uniform colors or mascots. If you want to pick a bracket for the NCAA tournament, just ask Tim Miles.
Because out of all the predictions and projections made at the start of this college basketball season, the Nebraska coach might be the only one who got it right.
At Big Ten media day, Miles drew plenty of chuckles for his one-liners. He got more laughs when he said his Cornhuskers weren’t going to wind up dead last in the 12-team conference, as everyone was picking them.
“I really do believe in Nebraska. I really do believe in what we are doing and how we can do it,” Miles said then. “And I believe in our guys. So I don’t think we’re going to end up 12th, and I think it’s going to be a good thing.”
Nebraska, of course, has turned out to be the surprise of the season, earning its first trip to the NCAA tournament since 1998. And don’t be surprised if the ’Huskers, seeded 11th in the West regional, snap their oh-fer streak in the tourney — six appearances, six losses — when they face sixth-seeded Baylor on Friday in San Antonio.
After starting the Big Ten season 0-4, they won 11 of their last 15, including defeats of Michigan State and Wisconsin, each No. 9 in The Associated Press Top 25 at the time. With those wins, Nebraska nearly matched its total of top-10 victories from its previous 117 seasons — three.
Its 11 conference wins were its most since 1966 and, just as Miles predicted, Nebraska did not finish last in the Big Ten. Far from it, in fact, winding up fourth. Miles shared Big Ten coach of the year honors with Michigan’s John Beilein. All of which should, aside from making Miles your go-to guy for Powerball numbers, serve as yet another reminder that when it comes to March Madness, the only thing that’s certain is that nothing is certain. And that’s never been more true than this year.
Remember that Kentucky-Michigan State/Kansas-Duke doubleheader in November that was billed as a Final Four preview? Yeah. None of the four even landed a No. 1 seed.
Yes, Wichita State made the Final Four last year, but nobody saw the Shockers going into this year’s tournament undefeated. (Don’t even try claiming you did. You didn’t. You’re not getting $1 billion from Warren Buffett, either, because your bracket will be far from perfect.)
The reality is, you’d have better luck throwing darts at the singledigit seeds than trying to handicap this field. Though Miles is willing to make another bold call.
“I think we’re a team good enough to win the tournament,” he said Friday.
Mind you, Miles said this after Nebraska gagged up an 18-point second-half lead on its way to a 71-67 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament. This wasn’t another one of his one-liners, though. Miles knows his team, and he knows from past success that his system works.
The ’Huskers don’t have a roster full of McDonald’s All-Americans. Or any All-Americans, for that matter. Terran Petteway, the Big Ten’s leading scorer at 18.1 points a game, was Nebraska’s only player to make the all-conference first team.
But what the Cornhuskers lack in star power they make up for in gritty defense, a just-get-it-done attitude and clutch shooting.
Shavon Shields averaged less than 13 points in the regular season, but he scored 22 or more three times, including 33 against Illinois. Walter Pitchford and Ray Gallegos both can hurt you from three-point range.
Nebraska held eight consecutive opponents to less than 40% shooting from the field, a streak that ended in that win against Wisconsin.
The Cornhuskers might not take your breath away, but they’re not going to go away, either.
“I hope we don’t see them in the NCAA tournament, that’s for sure,” Ohio State coach Thad Matta said.
COACH ON RISE That Miles has managed to turn Nebraska, where football is as close as you can get to religion without setting foot in a church, into a basketball school should come as no surprise. Nor should it be a surprise that it took him less than two seasons to do it.
He’s resurrected more programs than Rick Pitino, and he’s done it with less material.
Mayville (N.D.) State had won all of four games the two seasons before Miles arrived. In his two years there, Mayville State had 35 wins and two conference titles. Next up was Southwest Minnesota State, which had one winning season in the previous decade. Miles had four in four years, including a 28-win season in his final year at the school.
He oversaw North Dakota State’s move to Division I, where the Bison had at least 16 wins in each of their first three seasons. His reclamation project at Colorado State culminated with the school’s first 20-win season in 14 years, in 2012.
And now he has a budding powerhouse at Nebraska.
“I asked one buddy of mine, ‘What do I say? We were picked 12th again,’ ” Miles said back in October. “He said, ‘You’ve got them right where you want them.’ ”
That line got laughs, too. No one’s laughing at Miles and Nebrasketball now.