EXAMINE TRENDS TO ZERO IN ON LIKELY WINNERS
Seeds, shot percentages, names could lead to bracket prizes
Put down that office paperwork and back away slowly. This is not the time to earn your paycheck.
Even your boss thinks you’re peeking at the Internet and studying the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
So pick up the No. 2 pencil and do the math. But don’t worry if your numbers don’t add up.
Whoever said mathematics is made up of 50% formulas, 50% proofs and 50% imagination was filling out an NCAA basketball bracket.
In the words of Matthew McConaughey, don’t chase the person you are now, chase the person you want to be in three weeks. At the Final Four weekend. To those who have been filling out brackets for decades, we know you have your theories, but we figured we would help the newcomer.
Or the person trying to become the office winner.
Or even take the $1 billion prize from Quicken Loans and Warren Buffett for a perfect bracket.
Some of these “tips” might seem silly, but is there anything sillier than losing to the guy in accounting who picked teams alphabetically or by the states he has visited?
So all right, all right, all right ... on with the tips.
Eyes of … :
In the six previous Final Fours played in Texas, a team from Kentucky has made the Final Four in four of them and won twice (Louisville, 1986; and Kentucky, 1998). Treys in the upright position:
Since 1987, only six teams have shot less than 35% on three-pointers and won the title. However, Louisville did it last year (33.3%).
Charity starts at home: Since 1985, when the tournament went to 64 teams, only seven champions have shot less than 70% at the free throw line. However, no winner has shot better than 77%.
People smarter than me: Computer science professor Sheldon H. Jacobson shared these numbers with the News Bureau of Illinois, and we’re not too proud to co-opt them for our brackets. Since 1985, an average of 4.45 teams seeded No. 11 or worse have advanced to the round of 32 and an average of 1.69 teams seeded No. 13 or worse have won in the first round. And only in 1995 has a team seeded No. 7 or worse not made the Sweet 16.
Seeds of discontent:
If you total the number of the seeds in your Final Four, you want to shoot for single digits or the low teens. Only six times has the total exceeded 14. Last year was one of those when Louisville (1), Michigan (4), Syracuse (4) and Wichita State (9) added up to 18. 1 is not the loneliest number: Since seeding began
in 1979, there have been three years when a No. 1 failed to make the Final Four. But there has been only one year (2008) when all four No. 1s made it.
Middle ground:
No team with a .500 record has won a tournament game.
Sit in coach class:
Since USA TODAY Sports took over the coaches poll in 1993, the final regular-season No. 1 has won the title four times. This year’s No. 1 is Florida.
Unbeaten until ... :
An undefeated team has not won the title since Indiana in 1976. In that time, a team with two losses has
won seven titles. The top two teams in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll are Florida (32-2) and Wichita State (34-0).
Feast or famine:
If you define an upset by a team beating another five spots or higher in the seeding, there have been seven tournaments since 1979 in which it happened in 10 or more games. Last year was one of those tournaments with Florida Gulf Coast, Wichita State and Oregon accounting for six of those wins. But in the same time frame there
have been 13 tournaments in which it happened five times or fewer.
Round 1:
Only the No. 8 seed has a losing record as the better seed in the first round since 1985. The seed has a .483 winning percentage. If you are looking for a bigger upset, the No. 5 beats the No. 12 just 65% of the time.
I for an I:
Since 1989, the national title has been won by a coach with an “I” in his last name 18 times. Not since 1997 (Lute Ol- son with Arizona) has a coach won the title without having an “I” in his first or last name.
Smells like teen spirit: The No. 16 seeds have won no tournament games in the round of 64. The No. 15 seeds have beaten a No. 2 seven times. But don’t get greedy; overall, a 15 seed has won eight games in the tournament. Florida Gulf Coast won two of them last year.
Law of big numbers: North Carolina has made the most Sweet 16s (25), followed by Duke (23), Kentucky (22), Kansas (20), Louisville (19) and Syracuse (18). Florida and Villanova are at nine. Ohio State has been in the Sweet 16 the last four years. That is the longest current streak. Florida, Kansas and Marquette had three-season streaks.
Playing the percentages: Duke (.750) has the best winning percentage for teams playing a minimum of 20 tournament games. Others in the tournament: UCLA (.725), North Carolina (.722), Florida (.714), Kentucky (.707), Kansas (.699), Michigan State (.683) and Michigan (.672).
This far and no further: The only seeds to win titles are Nos. 1,2, 3, 4, 6 and 8. Three No. 11 seeds have made the Final Four, but a 10, 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 has never been there.