Is the West the Warriors’ to lose?
But will lack of size be top seed’s downfall?
Stephen Curry and his Golden State Warriors pals have the inside track in the Western Conference. Let’s at least give them that much respect as we debate the western side of the NBA playoffs.
The Warriors dominated in semi-historic fashion this season. They finished with the eighthlargest point-differential (10.1) in NBA history, compiled a remarkable 39-2 record at home and held an 11-game lead on the No. 2 seed Houston Rockets.
But as it pertains to the postseason and all the handicapping that started when the matchups were finally established, they have the closest thing to pole position as you can find in this parity-filled group.
Step 1: Beat Anthony Davis and his New Orleans Pelicans team that fought until the final seconds of the regular season to earn their invite to the party. Don’t blame them for having a happy-to-behere mentality.
Step 2: Get past the winner of a Memphis Grizzlies-Portland Trail Blazers series while reveling in the fact the basketball gods put the one team that should make the Warriors shudder (the San Antonio Spurs) on the other side of the bracket.
Step 3: Use that “Pound the rock” philosophy that Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is always talking about to get past the Spurs, Rockets or Clippers in the Western Conference Finals (the Dallas Mavericks are eligible as well, but I’m just not seeing it). NBA Finals, here they come.
Yet as TNT’s Charles Barkley made so clear many months ago when he voiced his skepticism about the Warriors’ ability to win it all, they’ll be battling an idea as much as the opponent during these playoffs.
The central question at hand: Can a team that relies so heavily on its outside shot be the last one standing? Or will the cold streaks that always seem inevitable in the long-range game doom their efforts?
The Splash Brothers of Curry and Klay Thompson are easily the best three-point shooting tandem in NBA history, having combined for a league-record 525 this season and hitting them at an impressive 44% clip. As a unit, the Warriors led the NBA in threepoint percentage (39.8%). The surprising part, however, is that they’re only the fourth-most-dependent team when it comes to threes: the Rockets led the league in attempts by a large margin (32.7), with the Cleveland Cavaliers (27.5), Trail Blazers (27.2) and Warriors (27) next.
Yet Barkley stood by his stance in a conference call with news reporters Thursday, when he acknowledged the Warriors’ improved defense helps their cause this time around (they were first in defensive ranking this season) but reiterated his opinion that they don’t have enough “Round Mound of Rebound” types to get it done.
“I don’t know if they can make enough jumpers to win four straight series,” Barkley said. “They are too small down low, even though their defense is better. The frontcourt combinations for Portland, Memphis and the Clippers are a handful. San Antonio is probably the smallest team in the Western Conference when it comes to guys in the post that are great offensively. In the Western Conference, you need some big dudes.”
This is the point where Draymond Green reaches for the scissors to cut out this story and plaster it inside his Oracle Arena locker for motivation. Never mind that the 6-7, 230-pound Warriors forward is considered a defensive player of the year candidate and a major reason why Golden State was so special this season. Barkley is still skeptical that he’ll be able to handle Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge or Zach Randolph.
The truth, though, is that Green has been surprising opponents with his ability to make up for his lack of size all season. His length, sheer energy and defensive smarts are some of the best in the league, and the Warriors’ habit of non-stop-switching on defense often confuses opponents enough to give them a built-in edge.
And as big men go, the Warriors enter the playoffs ecstatic that center and fellow defensive player of the year candidate Andrew Bogut — who missed the 2014 postseason with a rib injury — is healthy again. According to basketball-reference.com, Bogut led the NBA in defensive box plus-minus this season (5.5) and was second in defensive rating (96.4) behind San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard (96.8).
Speaking of the Spurs, they would have been the popular pick to win it all again if not for the major turn of events in the regular-season finale. By falling to the Pelicans and missing a chance to secure the No. 2 seed, they lost homecourt advantage in the firstround matchup against the Clippers. In the West, San Antonio can only get homecourt back if the Spurs face the Blazers, Mavericks or Pelicans.
“The Spurs screwed up (Wednesday),” Barkley said. “No team is good enough to win three straight series in the West on the road. These teams are really good. You might win one series on the road, but I don’t think you can win two more.”
Still, the list of pundits who sold the Spurs short is longer than Leonard’s pterodactyl-like wingspan ( barely). They showed during a late-season surge that they’re still the Spurs, a team that had a league-leading point differential of plus-13.6 down the stretch as they won 21 of their final 25 games.
“I think they could (win it all) for sure,” said TNT analyst Kenny Smith, a member of the 1994-95 Houston Rockets team that won the title despite being a No. 6 seed. “I don’t think (Tim) Duncan, (Tony) Parker, (Manu) Ginobili, Kawhi and Danny Green are worried to play on the road. It doesn’t bother them, and that’s the key.” May the best in the West win. “I’ve got no idea who is going to win the Western Conference,” Barkley said. “If Golden State won, I wouldn’t be totally shocked. I wouldn’t be shocked if Memphis, L.A., San Antonio or Portland won, either.”