HOW OBAMA CAN BOOST IRAN ACCORD
Showing that he’s serious about ISIL will strengthen America’s hand
For all the talk of individual provisions of the Iran deal and how they might be improved, much of the debate about what could be President Obama’s most significant and controversial diplomatic achievement has a surreal air.
The agreement is imperfect and probably even flawed, compared with what it realistically could and should be. Even so, I do not see how the terms of the deal can be reopened at this stage, or sanctions reapplied in a powerful way should the accord collapse.
On balance, I favor it, if only marginally.
But even if toughening the provisions is unrealistic now, there is something Obama can and should do to improve the situation. It would not amount to a specific change in the terms of the nuclear weapons accord itself. Rather, by consciously strengthening some aspects of the rest of his foreign policy, he can improve the context within which the deal will be implemented — and thus the likely effects for American security.
It seems clear that some of the opposition here in the United States to the nuclear deal is based on a sense that Obama is pulling back on foreign policy, not showing enough spine or sustained engagement. This critique largely occurs along partisan lines domestically and is not always fair — as with the Republican handling of much of the Benghazi scandal. But it has echoes in other parts of the world, too, where friends and foes alike have been wondering especially in Obama’s second term just how committed he is to American leadership abroad.
The clearest manifestation and biggest problem has been in regard to the rise of the terrorist group Islamic State.
As such, to show that he is in fact not pulling back, the president needs to get tougher against ISIL. This could help him get the nuclear accord approved by Congress. But it is not just a matter of posturing and politics. Doing so would also signal to Iran that this president has not lost his willingness to get tough and even use force when needed. That in turn will make Iranian compliance with the deal more likely.
Short of another big intervention in the Middle East, which no one wants, there is much more America can and should do:
Reverse Obama’s plan to remove all U.S. combat forces from Afghanistan by the end of his presidency. We have already reduced our presence by 90%, to 10,000 troops, and do not need even that number past 2016. But several thousand American special operations troops and other operatives (along with some additional NATO forces from other countries who will stay if we do) could make a world of difference in the ongoing fight against al- Qaeda and affiliates in that region.
uIncrease the U.S. presence in Iraq by several thousand additional trainers and mentors to help catalyze the creation and training of an Iraqi National Guard, and deploy advisers further forward with Iraqi units in the field.
When conditions permit, deploy U.S. commandos, backed up by contingents from regional and NATO allies if possible, in pockets of Syria where moderate opposition units can get a foothold and need help accelerating their recruiting and training of additional friendly fighters.
Use American air power more directly to protect such friendly forces as well, in an expansion of what we are doing in Syria already (something closer to an aerial denial zone).
Carry out more special oper- ations raids, on a limited basis, in conjunction with regional allies in both Iraq and Syria (of the type we conducted in the early spring with Delta Force in central Syria).
I do not propose these actions simply for show. They, in addition to our stronger cooperation with Turkey, could all make a substantial difference in the evolution of the important and ongoing fight against ISIL, al- Qaeda and affiliates. But in the context of the Iran deal, they would have the additional benefit of signaling clearly that this president is not pulling back from the world and is not suggesting that U.S. power can be comprehensively replaced by U.S. diplomacy.
Military power and diplomacy are not diametrically opposite tools of American foreign policy; used well, they are complementary, and each makes the other much stronger.
I believe that Obama knows this. It is a good time for him to remind everyone else that he gets it, too.