POPE FRANCIS’ VISIT IS JUST ONE RING IN THE 2016 CIRCUS — BUT IT’S A BIG ONE
His unprecedented address may stump the candidates
“Beneath his humble, simple exterior lies the mind of a brilliant politician.” Veteran Vatican watcher John Allen
For a century, it was the paranoid political fantasy of Protestant fundamentalists and Know-Nothing nativists: The pope — “the whore of Babylon,” they called him, citing the Book of Revelation — would use Catholic immigrants to bend Washington to his will.
On Sept. 24, when Pope Francis becomes the first pontiff to address a joint session of Congress, there’ll be no coup d’etat. But his first U.S. visit could be another wild card in the unpredictable 2016 presidential race, especially if he touches on controversies such as Planned Parenthood funding, global warming, immigration or the Iran nuclear deal.
The unprecedented congressional address has a curious genesis: Francis, a left-leaning pope whom Rush Limbaugh calls a Marxist, was invited by John Boehner, a right-leaning speaker of the House (as well as a proud Catholic and former altar boy).
As a result, conservatives Republicans may have to listen to the pope talk about:
uCapitalism: Uncontrolled, it will “devour everything which stands in the way of increased profits,” the pope has said, and promote “the idolatry of money.’’
uImmigration: Francis says immigrants, legal and illegal, are often victims of injustice and deserve support, not the scorn heaped on them by some politicians. He says he considered entering the U.S. from Mexico to show solidarity with immigrants.
uClimate change: In an encyclical (papal statement) in June, Francis said global warming was real; partly caused by humans; and a problem governments must address more urgently, despite the costs.
Do Republican members — four of whom (Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham and Rand Paul) are presidential candidates — applaud? Sit on their hands? Stick pins in Boehner dolls?
The suspense makes for “fascinating political theater,” says Thomas Reese, a Jesuit priest and church observer for The National
Catholic Reporter.
He adds: “Boehner must have been crazy to invite him.”
‘A BRILLIANT POLITICIAN’ It’s hard to predict the political impact of the pope’s visit. But two things are clear:
1. Francis has strong political views and knows how to express them.
His two predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict XVI, were philosopher-theologians who expressed themselves accordingly. Francis, whose background is science (chemistry), speaks plainly and pointedly. “If you want a fivestar, banner headline insight about this pope, here it is,” John Allen, a veteran Vatican watcher, wrote this year in The Boston
Globe. “Beneath his humble, simple exterior lies the mind of a brilliant politician.” The pope’s seemingly off-the-cuff remarks, Allen says, are anything but.
Francis has a plan, agrees Austen Ivereigh, one of his biographers. He says the pope believes “the church has got boxed into a right-wing agenda (gay marriage, abortion, religious freedom) and needs to break out. That means strong messages on immigration, ecology, the death penalty and inequality.” 2. When the pope speaks, so must the presidential candidates. If the pope says anything remotely newsworthy, journalists will ask presidential candidates to comment, especially Catholics such as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Martin O’Malley and Chris Christie. That could create what political analyst Nathan Gonzales calls “a domino effect.”
Consider how the pope’s statement on climate change played out. Rick Santorum, a GOP presidential candidate, is a conservative Catholic who believes faith and values have a place in government. During his 2012 campaign he said John F. Kennedy’s 1960 campaign speech to Baptist ministers about separation of church and state — and about Kennedy’s independence, as a Catholic, from the Vatican — “makes me want to throw up.” But when it became clear that Francis would warn of global warming, Santorum stressed the limits of ecclesiastical authority: “The church has gotten it wrong a few times on science,” he said, referring to episodes like the refusal to accept Galileo’s proof that the earth circles the sun. “We’re probably better off leaving science to the scientists.”
At that, former Jesuit seminarian Jerry Brown pounced. “The science is clear,” the California governor wrote on Twitter, adding, in reference to the pope’s handle: “Get with the @Pontifex.”
How to handle a papal hot potato? A candidate “can disagree with the pope, but can’t appear to disrespect him,” says Patrick Millsaps, Newt Gingrich’s 2012 campaign manager.
Although analysts agree the pope will touch on political issues, no one knows how specific he’ll be. He could, for instance, call for environmental protection or help for the poor, and leave it at that. Or he could say what government should do. But even so much as a good word for immigrants would rebuke Donald Trump and others who’ve described them as a problem.
The pope can’t appear to favor a candidate. But his selection of topics could help set an agenda that does. “The pope is not going to tell people what to think. He’ll tell them what to think about,” says David Campbell, a Notre Dame political scientist and coauthor of American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us.
‘WHO AM I TO JUDGE?’
Francis’ humility, piety and candor have made him a global sensation since his surprise election as pope in March 2013 after Benedict XVI unexpectedly retired. The Argentine immediately became famous for his openness and relative informality. He lived in a modest guesthouse instead of the palatial papal apartments; he telephoned rank-and-file Catholics out of the blue; he took the bus; he tweeted.
Asked about homosexuality, he said, “If someone is gay and he searches for the Lord and has good will, who am I to judge?” He said the church shouldn’t speak so insistently — he used the word “obsessed” — about issues like abortion and homosexuality: “We have to find a new balance.”
Although almost everything Francis says is news, much of it is not new. Take his comment that the Big Bang theory of the universe’s origin is consistent with Catholic teaching; he was merely repeating a position announced in 1951 by Pope Pius XII.
The pope is popular, but his popularity may be slipping. According to a Gallup poll in July, 59% of Americans view the pope favorably, down from 76% in February 2014, and about the same as after he was elected in March 2013. Only 45% of conservatives view him favorably, down from 72% last year.
Can the pope mobilize or shape the Catholic vote?
The Catholic vote isn’t what it used to be, says Robert Jones, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, a nonpartisan research group. A split has emerged, with white Catholics skewing Republican and Hispanic Catholics reliably Democratic. In 2012, 59% of white Catholics voted for Mitt Romney, while threequarters of Hispanic Catholics went for Barack Obama. So the “Catholic vote” is really two votes — neither of them up for grabs. POTENTIAL FOR SURPRISE The plight of conservative Republicans represents something of a turnabout; once, it was liberal Democrats who had to sweat when the pope came to town. When President Bill Clinton welcomed John Paul II to Denver in 1993, there was speculation that the pontiff might rebuke the Democrat for supporting abortion rights.
What happened was more subtle; the pope departed from his prepared text to give the president what John Paul’s biographer, George Weigel, called “a history lesson”: that the nation was founded on self-evident moral truths, “including every human being ’s inalienable right to life.”
There was no question that when the pope said “right to life” — a phrase he repeated — he was talking about abortion.
To call Francis a liberal is to ignore the difference between U.S. and Vatican politics. His unpredictability may add to his allure, according to Jones of the Public Religion Research Institute: “There’s always a feeling that the pope just might surprise you.”
In that case, congressional Democrats might also be squirming in their seats on Sept. 24.