ANOTHER COLTS’ SHAKE-UP DUE?
Grigson, Pagano could take fall as Luck, D struggle
Jim Irsay has to be having flashbacks to 2011.
That was the season Peyton Manning missed after neck surgeries and the Indianapolis Colts went 2-14, prompting their owner to fire his franchise architect, general manager and coach and cut his star quarterback to make room for No. 1 draft pick Andrew Luck in 2012.
“We’ve changed our model a little bit,” Irsay told USA TODAY Sports in October 2013, flashing his Super Bowl XLI championship ring, “because we wanted more than one of these.”
Irsay was referring to his demands of new GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano to build a more well-rounded team than the one that put up Star Wars numbers offensively in the Manning era but lost its playoff opener seven of 11 times.
Bill Polian, Chris Polian and Jim Caldwell paid the price for the perceived imbalance. Yet here the Colts are four years later, with Luck, 26, enduring the rockiest stretch of his brilliant young career and the team around him seemingly incapable of doing anything to overcome it.
Pagano has pointed to injuries on defense as a factor in the team’s 3-4 start entering Monday’s visit to the Carolina Panthers, with all three wins within the pitiful AFC South (two of them with backup Matt Hasselbeck starting in place of injured Luck). But Luck’s play in three consecutive 11-5 seasons might have covered up familiar issues.
As one executive for a different NFL team put it recently, speaking on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons, “Even the last three years, I never felt they were overly talented. I just think they overachieved, at least defensively.”
Despite using roughly 57% of their salary cap commitments this year on defense, the Colts have no difference-makers except maybe Vontae Davis, a feast-orfamine type at cornerback. No team has allowed more yards (408.6 per game) or more explosive pass plays (32 of 20-plus yards). The Colts are 30th in sacks (10) and 23rd against the run (122.7 yards per game), in part because they have trailed so much.
Offensively, Luck has receiver T.Y. Hilton and another emerging threat in Donte Moncrief. But the line has been neglected for years, and its best player, left tackle Anthony Castonzo, said last week that he had been “( bleeping) terrible” this season. Luck has 10 of the Colts’ 15 turnovers, tied for second most in the league.
The Colts haven’t listed Luck and his ailing throwing shoulder on the injury report since he returned to the lineup two weeks ago. But there are rumblings in league circles that he’s hurting more than he or the team is letting on. Even before Luck missed time, something seemed off.
Asked in a conference call this week if criticism of Luck is fair, Pagano said, “It’s team football, right? It’s offense, it’s defense, it’s special teams, it’s myself, it’s coaching, it’s everything. We all have to be better.”
It’s never easy to overcome poor quarterback play. But Irsay surely is aware the Denver Broncos — who visit Indianapolis on Nov. 8 — are 6-0 in spite of Manning ’s uncommonly awful start, thanks largely to John Elway’s investments on defense the last couple years.
The Colts’ biggest investment on defense this offseason was a two-year, $14 million contract for 33-year-old Philadelphia Eagles castoff Trent Cole, who wasn’t a natural scheme fit and has yet to record a sack. Now the window is closing for taking advantage of Luck’s discounted rookie con- tract. He’s due $16.155 million in 2016, and a bar-setting extension is virtually inevitable.
Really, the model hasn’t changed much at all — another reason Irsay might feel he needs to make changes again.
BRONCOS’ D MATCHES UP
One reason the Broncos match up well with the Green Bay Packers in Sunday night’s battle of unbeatens: Denver’s top three cornerbacks are as good as any group in the league.
With reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers on the trigger, the Packers use three receivers, one tight end and one halfback as their base set. Few opponents can counter with a cover group like Chris Harris, Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby.
“I think Harris is the best,” said a coach who has game-planned for the Broncos. “He’s the best tackler. He’s the scrappiest. He’s the quickest in a short area — that’s why they bump him inside to play nickel. Just an all-around good football player.”
Harris, 26, has gone from an undrafted rookie to making his first Pro Bowl last year. Talib, 29, is always a threat to jump a route and wreck a game with an interception. Roby, 23, was a firstround pick out of Ohio State last year and is on the rise.
That talent on the back end arguably is the starting point for the success of Wade Phillips’ defense, though the ability to get pressure with a four-man rush featuring DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller is a big factor, too.
“I would say it starts with the pass rushers,” said a high-ranking scout who has studied the Broncos recently. “Ware’s playing like he was five years ago, and the other guy’s hard to block.”
The anticipated return of receiver Davante Adams — the Packers’ best outside weapon with Jordy Nelson out for the season — from an ankle injury should help an offense that hasn’t been operating at full tilt.
The Packers defense has been impactful. No team is allowing fewer points per game (16.8).
ONE HIDDEN COWBOYS STAT
Don’t overlook a lack of takeaways in assessing the Dallas Cowboys’ recent slide.
In 2014, the Cowboys defense generated 31 turnovers — second to the Houston Texans’ 34 for the league lead. This season, the Cowboys have three takeaways through six games, all in a Week 2 victory against the Philadelphia Eagles that preceded their fourgame losing streak.
Compare that (and the Cowboys’ league-worst -9 turnover margin) to the rest of the NFC East. The Eagles have a leaguehigh 19 takeaways. The New York Giants have 15 and the NFL’s best turnover margin (+10). Even the Washington Redskins have 10 takeaways.
A lot of factors go into that. But with quarterback Tony Romo continuing to recover from a broken collarbone, there’s no better way for the defense to help backup Matt Cassel than handing him the ball on short fields. Entering Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks, the Dallas offense has started 35 consecutive drives in its own territory.
INSIDE RUNS
Key difference in the additions of aging veterans by the Arizona Cardinals and Colts: For Arizona, it was Plan B. The Cardinals backfield was banged up Aug. 18 when they signed Chris Johnson to a one-year, $870,000 deal, with $1.13 million available in incentives. The 30-year-old enters Week 8 second in the NFL in rushing with 567 yards on 111 carries. Compare that to the Colts’ signing of Frank Gore, who’s having a fine season (446 yards on 98 carries) at 32 but cost $7.5 million in guarantees on a three-year, $12 million deal in March. The Cardinals added Dwight Freeney, 35, out of necessity as well. The prorated oneyear minimum deal he signed Oct. 13 included $1 million in incentives tied to sacks. He got his first in Monday’s win against the Baltimore Ravens.
Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Quinn has his defense flying around in familiar concepts from his days with the Seattle Seahawks. The question is, how sustainable is it with Atlanta’s personnel? “It’s amazing how they’re getting it done with their front four,” said a scout for another NFL team who requested anonymity. “And they’re not blitzing guys.” The Falcons rank last in sacks per pass play, which could catch up with them against offenses that can attack safeties Ricardo Allen and William Moore.