First half full of surprises
By the end of this week, most NHL teams will have reached the halfway point of their schedule. Takeaways from the season’s first half (stats through Tuesday):
Best Washington Capitals team ever? It’s too soon to know. The 2009-10 Capitals won the President’s Trophy, and the 1997-98 team reached the Stanley Cup Final. But this team appears to be set up better for a long playoff run than the 2009-10 Capitals. Under coach Barry Trotz, they play a Chicago Blackhawks-like balanced style that wins in the postseason. It helps that goalie Braden Holtby is playing like Carey Price did last season.
Return to 100 points? Nobody told Dallas Stars forwards Jamie Benn (52 points) and Tyler Seguin (50 points) offense was down; 100 points are within their grasp. The 2009-10 season was the last one that saw more than one player get to the century mark. With Patrick Kane at 59 points, we could have three.
Los Angeles Kings primed for a deep run. Their possession game is elite, Drew Doughty is in the Norris Trophy discussion and Jonathan Quick’s even-strength and adjusted save percentages are career bests. Scary to think they’re only 15th in scoring.
Jaromir Jagr deserves more love. Jagr, who turns 44 next month, has been most important to the success of the Florida Panthers. He is the team’s goals leader (14), points leader (29) and inspirational leader. He has netted four goals in four games to help Florida extend its winning streak to 10 games.
Doug Armstrong needs to add offense. The St. Louis Blues are 23rd in scoring and need a winger who can bring punch to the second line. Paul Stastny’s shooting percentage is half of his career average, so expect him to score more. But they are looking at more playoff disappointment if they fail to address this.
Marian Hossa still playing at a high level. Five goals and 17 points don’t tell the entire story of his impact. Hossa’s shot rate is still over three a game, though his scoring rate is about one-third off his career number. Hossa is still a strong defender and one of Chicago’s best possession drivers.
Minnesota Wild due for a slip. Would you characterize the Wild as possessing top-level finishers or goaltending? Yet their PDO, a sum of five-on-five save percentage and shooting percentage, is 101.6, the highest among West teams. Factor in middling possession numbers (19th, 48.9%), and the correction could be coming.
Travis Hamonic deal on back burner. Although you still hear rumblings about teams wanting to acquire Hamonic, it’s in the New York Islanders’ best interest to wait until the summer to accommodate his wishes to move to a Western team. More important, the Islanders have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. They can’t afford to give up Hamonic, especially now that Johnny Boychuk is sidelined by injury.
Sloppy play in Big Apple. The euphoria over the New York Rangers’ good start has been erased by the team’s inconsistency over the last several weeks. They are 6-11-2 in their last 19 games, and their veteran defensive corps has looked leaky to ordinary. This might be the first major test for first-year general manager Jeff Gorton. Will he make a trade to change the look?
Petr Mrazek is answer. Detroit Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill has started Mrazek for the last three games, and it seems as if he is the No. 1 goalie. He has stopped 240 of the last 258 shots (.930 save percentage) he has faced. Meanwhile, Jimmy Howard has been pulled in his last two starts.
Waiting for Price. The Montreal Canadiens might need Price as much for a psychological boost as for what he does on the ice. After they played their best game of the season in the Winter Classic, they lost to the Philadelphia Flyers in their next game. Brendan Gallagher is back, but Dale Weise is gone for a couple of weeks. The Canadiens need to get healthy before we know where they are.
New Jersey Devils still start with D. Jacques Lemaire left, Scott Stevens and Marty Brodeur retired and Lou Lamoriello jumped to the Toronto Maple Leafs, yet the Devils’ success is still about defense and goaltending. No one expected them to be contending for a playoff spot, but they are doing it with a defensive style and stellar goaltending that is giving up 2.28 goals per game. Cory Schneider (.928 save percentage) should be in the Vezina hunt.
Pressure on Nashville Predators’ defense to do it all. Among players with at least 400 minutes of ice time, Predators forwards rank as follows in points per 60 minutes (even strength): Mike Ribeiro (32), Craig Smith (98), James Neal (109), Colin Wilson (128), Filip Forsberg (139) and Calle Jarnkrok (145). Perhaps Ryan Johansen, acquired Wednesday from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Seth Jones, will help jump-start the offense.
Z is still a big plus. It’s not like anyone is going to overlook a 6-9 player, but Zdeno Chara has been a vital contributor to the Boston Bruins’ better-than-expected season. At 38, he leads them in ice time (24:27) and plusminus rating (+10). He’s on a pace for about 40 points this season. He has blocked 54 shots, and he’s a mainstay on a Boston penaltykilling unit that ranks eighth.
Sidney Crosby is back. After suffering through the worst offensive slump of his career, Crosby has rediscovered his magic. He has scored five goals in the last four games. He boasts 12 points in the last eight games, more fitting for a player averaging 1.33 points per game in his career.
More lucky than good. The Ottawa Senators’ ability to hang in playoff contention is impressive, considering that statistically they aren’t measuring up to true contenders. They have the worst possession number (46.5%, according to War-on-ice.com) in the Eastern Conference. Plus, their penalty killing ranks 28th (76.3%) and their goal-against-per-game average (2.90) is 26th.
Tobias Rieder is overlooked in desert. Rieder might be the most complete young forward on the Arizona Coyotes roster. He is one of four with at least two points per 60 minutes at even strength, and he’s their best possession player, as the Coyotes control the play more than 5% better with him on the ice.
Jonathan Drouin saga is just a blip. His trade request isn’t close to the Tampa Bay Lightning ’s biggest problem. GM Steve Yzerman and coach Jon Cooper’s priority is to figure out why the offense ranks 21st after leading last season. The return of Ondrej Palat from injury helps.
Colorado Avalanche’s 2013 success is blinding. Don’t let the 19-18-3 record fool you. Teams should be judged on process and not just results, and coach Patrick Roy hasn’t made the necessary adjustments. A below-average possession team has gotten worse the last few seasons, to a league-low 44%.
Anaheim Ducks are lurking. Despite the terrible start, the Ducks are three points behind the Coyotes for second in a weak Pacific Division. With a a talented roster and league-low 97.3 PDO, they’re due for a hot streak.
Shayne Gostisbehere provides a spark. The most impactful minor league call-up in the Eastern Conference is the Flyers 22-year-old. The puck-moving defenseman has created a buzz around the league with his offensive knack. He has seven goals and 16 points in his 22 games.
Nothing going on with Eric Staal. It would seem to be in the Carolina Hurricanes’ best interests to trade Staal if they can’t resign him, but Staal will decide his fate because he has a no-trade clause. This could go all the way to the trade deadline. He could help several teams.
Vancouver Canucks should sell now. They’re six points out of a playoff spot with four teams to jump. GM Jim Benning should realize they aren’t close to contending and need a wave of new, young talent. Radim Vrbata and Brandon Prust are the only major unrestricted free agents next season, but Benning should sweeten deals with veterans whose contracts don’t expire until 2017-18.
San Jose Sharks are banking on Logan Couture. The moves GM Doug Wilson made in the offseason indicate they are in win-now mode. They’ve suffered without Couture, who has been limited to seven games because of injuries. He will change the complexion of this offense.
Mike Babcock should be a Jack Adams candidate. This is a rebuilding Toronto team with an uninspiring roster, yet somehow Babcock has it at .500. His ability to improve the defense (13th in goals-against average) should be enough to earn him coach-of-the-year consideration.
Karri Ramo holds keys. For the Calgary Flames to contend, their goaltending is going to have to be much better. Their .909 save percentage at five-on-five is the worst in the NHL. Ramo has been much better in the past month.
Connor Hellebuyck is an emerging star. It won’t be long before the Winnipeg Jets rookie netminder gets mentioned with the league’s best. For now, he needs to start the majority of games for the Jets’ playoff push. Among goalies with at least 12 games, he is tops in save percentage and adjusted save percentage.
Connor McDavid is a wild card. McDavid’s return to the lineup could change the playoff picture. Could he lead the Edmonton Oilers’ charge? If he does, how will that affect his Calder Trophy candidacy? Even if the Oilers don’t make the playoffs, adding McDavid to Taylor Hall and Leon Draisaitl will make them a difficult opponent.
Don’t rule out Jack Eichel. Chicago’s Artemi Panarin and Detroit’s Dylan Larkin are receiving much of the attention for the Calder Trophy, but Buffalo Sabres center Eichel will be in this race at the end. With 13 goals, Eichel could reach 30 by the end of the season. Historically, what happens later in the season carries more weight in balloting.
It’s about Auston Matthews. What else can the Blue Jackets do? Columbus fans have to start thinking about the draft. The problem with the all-in-on-Matthews strategy is that finishing last gives a team only a 20% shot of landing him in the lottery.