N.H. HOSTS ONE OF 9 KEY SENATE RACES THAT WILL DETERMINE PARTY CONTROL
The presidential race is not the only big election fight in New Hampshire this year.
The Granite State also is home to one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the nation, a battle between Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte and her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan. It is one of nine races that will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate when the next president is sworn into office in 2017.
“Democrats have at least a 50% chance of taking the Senate from Republicans,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College in California. “The outcome is going to depend in large part on the dynamics of the presidential race.”
If Republicans nominate Donald Trump, it would help boost Democratic turnout, Pitney predicted. He said Trump’s rhetoric has turned off Latino voters, women and other key segments of the Democratic base.
In the swing state of New Hampshire, Ayotte is counting on her personal appeal to sway voters of both parties, no matter who the presidential candidates are.
“My personal experiences with Kelly Ayotte are so positive, and she has been such a stand-up legislator and provider of constituent services that she absolutely has my vote for almost any office she would run for,” said Keith Howard, 57, a Democrat.
On the flip side, Hassan could benefit from the passion of young liberal voters such as Claire Kunzler, a 26-year-old college student from Keene, N.H., who is supporting Bernie Sanders in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
“I definitely would not vote for a Republican,” Kunzler said. “There are too many social issues that are at stake, especially for my generation.”
Republican senators are more vulnerable than Democrats in 2016 in part because more are up for reelection. Of the 34 Senate seats in play this year, 24 are held by Republicans and 10 by Democrats.
The second major challenge for Republicans is that many of those GOP seats are in states that voted for President Obama in 2008 or 2012.
Republicans hold a 54-46 advantage in the Senate, meaning Democrats must hold onto all their seats and win five seats from the GOP.
Here’s a look at this year’s nine key Senate races:
ILLINOIS
Republican Sen. Mark Kirk won with just 48% of the vote in 2010 and is considered the most endangered incumbent in the Senate as he seeks re-election in a state that leans heavily Democratic. He is likely to face Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth in a race ranked a “tossup” by the non-partisan Cook Political Re
port and a “tossup/tilt Democrat” by the non-partisan Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. Kirk overcame a stroke in 2012 at age 52 to return to work in the Senate. Duckworth is an Army veteran who lost both her legs and seriously damaged her right arm while serving as a helicopter pilot in the Iraq War.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Ayotte faces Hassan in one of the most competitive matchups in the nation. Abortion rights is expected to be a big issue in the race, which is considered a tossup by most analysts.
OHIO
Republican Sen. Rob Portman faces a challenge in this swing state from former Democratic governor Ted Strickland. Both
the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Politi
cal Report give Portman a slight edge, ranking the race as “leans Republican.” Portman and Strickland both served in the House.
PENNSYLVANIA
GOP Sen. Pat Toomey won his seat in 2010 with 51% of the vote. He will face one of three challengers who are vying for the Democratic nomination in the swing state. The race is ranked as “leans Republican” by the Cook
Political Report and as “tossup/ tilt Republican” by the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.
NEVADA
The retirement of veteran Democratic leader Harry Reid has left his Senate seat up for grabs. Republican Rep. Joe Heck will face Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the state’s former attorney general. Analysts consider the race a tossup.
FLORIDA
Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is not seeking re-election, opting to compete for the GOP nomination for president instead. Rubio’s departure has opened up an opportunity for Democrats, and the race is now considered a tossup.
COLORADO
Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet won re-election to a second term in 2010 with just 48% of the vote, making him a target for Republican challengers once again in this swing state. WISCONSIN First-term Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces former Democratic senator Russ Feingold in a replay of the 2010 race, which Johnson won by 5 percentage points. Analysts call the race a tossup.
NORTH CAROLINA
GOP Sen. Richard Burr, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, is seeking a third term. Democrats cite Burr’s weak approval ratings, but they failed to convince former senator Kay Hagan or U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx to challenge him. Both the Cook Political Re
port and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rate the race as “leans Republican.”