Supreme Court could shape up as ‘a bust for conservatives’
Rulings lean liberal for second year in a row
When the Supreme Court completed its term in June by upholding same-sex marriage and Obamacare, conservatives predicted this year would provide an about-face from a surprising string of liberal victories.
It hasn’t turned out that way. The death in February of Justice Antonin Scalia, combined with the same factors that gave liberal justices an advantage last year, has led to a continuation of the trend. That leaves conservatives even more determined to block President Obama from replacing Scalia.
From voting rights and the power of labor unions to class-action lawsuits against corporations and the rights of criminal defendants, the court’s four liberal justices have been on the winning side of every major decision this term. Oral arguments were completed Wednesday, and 33 of 69 cases have been decided.
For a court that has leaned conservative for decades, the question is whether the two-year trend indicates a fundamental change or a legal version of a stock market correction. Until a ninth justice is named, the answer will remain elusive.
“It’s something of a realignment after an extreme push to the right led by Justices Scalia and (Samuel) Alito,” said Elizabeth Wydra, president of the liberal Constitutional Accountability Center. “I think there’s some pullback from that very ideological push.”
Only the most closely divided cases — those that used to result in 5-4 decisions — are directly affected by Scalia’s death. In a major case on public employee unions, his absence caused a 4-4 tie that left intact a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit allowing the California Teachers Association to continue collecting fees from non-members.
Similar 4-4 votes on some of the term’s major remaining cases could boost conservative causes, based on federal appeals court decisions. That would apply to immigration and abortion cases from the more conservative U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which handles cases from Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
Texas’ tough restrictions on abortion clinics are more likely to be struck down with the help of Justice Anthony Kennedy, who often sides with the court’s liberal bloc. Kennedy hasn’t been alone in giving liberals their latest string of victories. Chief Justice John Roberts also sided with the majority in important cases affecting class-action lawsuits, criminal defendants’ rights and federal energy regulations.
That has left Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas on the losing side in most of the major cases.
“The easiest explanation for the term shaping up to be a bust for conservatives is that the liberals regularly vote as a bloc,” said John Elwood, a lawyer who appears frequently before the court.