Derby favorite lacks Triple Crown buzz
Pedigree and résumé hint that Nyquist could be poised for greatness in 2016
As the drought between Triple Crown winners grew from a historical anomaly to Sisyphean tragedy stretching nearly four decades, any sign of greatness from a 3-year-old was embraced with the hope — and trepidation — that horse racing ’s greatest burden would be lifted.
Such a long trail of horses had been anointed as “The One” only to be undone by the rigors of the Triple Crown that American Pha- roah’s 2015 achievement stands out as all the more remarkable, especially a year later as a new crop of hopefuls prepares for the 142nd Kentucky Derby.
What’s interesting, however, is that Saturday’s field includes a horse who, on paper, is more accomplished than American Pharoah was at this time last year. But Nyquist, the clear Kentucky Derby favorite, has barely generated a buzz on the Churchill Downs backstretch and in the racing industry at large.
As American Pharoah blitzed
“There’s some question marks with him probably, but you can’t knock his record. He finds a way to win.” Rival trainer Dale Romans, on Nyquist
through the Triple Crown last year, horse racing celebrated as if a rock star was in its midst. This year is apparently the hangover.
“I know I have one,” said Bob Baffert, who trained American Pharoah and will send out Mor Spirit in Saturday’s race. “I think we’ll see (a horse like that) again. You never know.”
Other than following the toughest act in a generation, there’s not much to knock about Nyquist, who is 7-for-7 in his career. He has won over four tracks covering the East Coast, the West Coast and Kentucky. He has won on the lead and from off the pace. He has overcome trouble out of the gate and been forced to go wide. His owner, trainer and jockey have won the Derby, so there will be no stage fright.
Yet there’s no groundswell of excitement about him as a potential Triple Crown winner. Only one of the Daily Racing Form’s eight handicappers whose picks were published online had Nyquist on top. Of the 15 voters in
The (Louisville) Courier-Journal’s media poll — which is supposed to be more like a college football poll, not a handicapping exercise — 10 put him in the No. 1 spot.
“He really doesn’t have the same media buzz,” said trainer Dale Romans, who will saddle Blue Grass Stakes winner Brody’s Cause. “Any undefeated 2-yearold champion coming into the Derby is the horse to beat. ... There’s some question marks with him probably, but you can’t knock his record. He finds a way to win, and winners — whether it’s human or racehorses — have that intangible.”
Some trepidation might stem from Nyquist’s Beyer Speed Figures, a handicapping tool that seeks to remove as many variants as possible. Nyquist topped 100 once, a 101 Beyer for a Feb. 15 win in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. American Pharoah, by contrast, scored 101, 101, 100 and 105 in four pre-Derby victories.
Nyquist’s sire, Uncle Mo, who was the Derby favorite in 2011 but was scratched a day before the race because of an illness, has three sons in the Derby. It’s unclear whether his offspring have the stamina for classic distances.
Even J. Paul Reddam, Nyquist’s owner, said at a news conference Thursday that if he were just betting the race as a fan, “I’d play against us as the favorite.”
But trainer Doug O’Neill has no worries about Nyquist’s ability for the 11⁄ 4- mile Derby distance.
“I think you have to look at his credentials. He has won four Grade 1s on four different tracks,” O’Neill said. “If the Florida Derby was a mile and a half, he would have won. Nobody has run a mile and a quarter yet, so we’ll see, but I’m very optimistic.”
Nyquist suffers by comparison to American Pharoah, but that’s not his opponent Saturday.
“Nyquist is nothing but the deserving favorite,” said Steve Asmussen, who trains two top contenders in Creator and Gun Runner. “Neither of my horses has run a race to date that would beat Nyquist, but that’s what everyone is here for.”