Brazil praised for halting plot
Experts: Bigger threats may be yet to come
Experts warn that security forces could face greater challenges,
Security experts say the arrest of 10 Brazilians accused of discussing terrorist acts last week is a good indication the country’s law enforcement agencies can monitor and respond to terrorist threats at next month’s Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.
But they warn that what they term an amateur plot could simply be an early warning sign of bigger, more complex attacks that could overwhelm a country unaccustomed to dealing with that kind of violence. Jay Ahern, the former acting commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection who has met with security officials in Rio to assess their preparations, said Brazil’s ability to deal with more sophisticated attacks was “low to moderate, at best.”
“They’re going to be challenged,” said Ahern, a principal at the Chertoff Group, a security consulting company. “You hope that things don’t go wrong, but hope is not a strategy.”
Brazilian law enforcement officials acknowledge that they don’t have a long history battling terrorism. The South American country largely remains neutral in international affairs and prides itself on having few foreign enemies.
That won’t matter, Ahern said, when the Olympics get underway.
“When you have a large concentration of people with a large international audience, it presents, unfortunately, a very at- tractive target,” he said.
Brazil also has seen more indications that terrorist groups will target the Games. The first came in November, when a member of the Islamic State tweeted, “Brazil, you are our next target.”
Rita Katz, director of the SITE Intelligence Group, says that has been followed by an increase in ISIS propaganda being shared on social media translated into Portuguese. In recent weeks, she said, someone created a channel on Telegram, a cloud-based instant messaging platform, dedicated to Islamic State supporters in Brazil.
The first posting on the channel, called “Inspire the Believers,” announced that it would be “posting some of the easy ideas” for lone wolf attacks at the Olympics. It has since listed suggested target venues at the Olympics, encouraged attackers to copy the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre and proposed weaponizing drones over crowds attending Olympic events.
“Many Brazilians may be worried and confused as to how ISIS could have reached their country,” she said. “But today’s modern terrorism is far-reaching, as ISIS and jihadists use social media to reach anywhere that people are online, and no country is insusceptible.”