Obama pitches for Clinton, and it could help — or hurt
He’ll energize voters but will handicap on ‘change’
Count President Obama as one of Hillary Clinton’s most potent assets — and as one of her biggest challenges.
Obama-as-asset was in the spotlight at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday night. The president brought just about everybody to their feet with a speech designed to boost her with the electoral coalition that twice elected him to the White House. Her past rival and former boss, he delivered an enthusiastic recommendation for her job promotion.
“You know, nothing truly prepares you for the demands of the Oval Office,” Obama said. “But Hillary’s been in the room; she’s been part of those decisions. ... Even in the middle of crisis, she listens ... and keeps her cool, and treats everybody with respect. And ... she never, ever quits.
“That is the Hillary I know. That’s the Hillary I’ve come to admire. And that’s why I can say with confidence there has never been a man or a woman — not me, not Bill, nobody — more qualified than Hillary Clinton to serve as president of the United States of America.”
But Obama-as-challenge was equally clear at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland last week, when Donald Trump promised dramatic change to the majority of voters in both parties who are dissatisfied by the direction of the country. He is tying her to every stumble and setback in the Obama administration, from the ambush of officers in Dallas to the rise of the Islamic State.
“The problems we face now — poverty and violence at home, war and destruction abroad — will last only as long as we continue relying on the same politicians who created them,” Trump said in his acceptance speech. “A change in leadership is required to change these outcomes.”
At a news conference in Florida on Wednesday, Trump’s tone was less somber but his message was the same, mocking the assertion that Clinton could be a
“change-maker.” That’s the word Bill Clinton repeatedly used in his speech to the Democratic convention Tuesday night, when signs declaring “change-maker” were distributed throughout the Wells Fargo Center.
“In terms of change, she’s been there 30 years!” Trump said. “She’s been there 30 years!”
That is one of Trump’s most powerful themes. In a Wall Street
Journal/ NBC News poll this month, 56% of those surveyed said they wanted the next president to bring major changes in the way the government operates — that fits with Trump’s vow — while just 41% wanted someone with a steady approach. That would be Hillary Clinton.
Independent voters, those who determine election outcomes, preferred change by double digits.
In an electorate demanding a new direction — albeit without a clear consensus about precisely what direction that might be — Clinton’s alliance with the outgoing president reinforces the perception, her groundbreaking gender aside, that she is a candidate of the status quo.
“You have to be for continuity and change at the same time,” says Bill Galston, a veteran of Democratic presidential campaigns and a White House aide to Bill Clinton. “That’s not an easy assignment, but it is the inescapable assignment.”
Some strains have been apparent this week in the debate over the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 12-nation trade deal that Obama negotiated and considers a significant part of his legacy. While she was his secretary of State, Clinton called it “the gold standard” of trade deals. But facing fierce opposition by rival Bernie Sanders and other progressives, Clinton has come out against it.
As Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine addressed the convention Wednesday, speaking before Obama, he was heckled by Sanders’ protesters holding up “No TPP” signs.
There’s a reason the relationship between second-term presidents and his party’s nominee to succeed him — call them political in-laws — are fraught.
In 1960, it was President Eisenhower who seemed reluctant to do much for Richard Nixon. Two months before the election, when asked at a news conference to cite a major idea of Nixon’s he had adopted, Eisenhower famously joked, “If you give me a week, I might think of one.”
In 2000, it was nominee Al Gore who kept his distance from the scandal-scarred President Clinton. And in 2008, Republican nominee John McCain shied from a close embrace by President George W. Bush, whose approval ratings tanked to 22% in the weeks before the election.
In those three elections, Nixon lost. So did Gore and McCain.
The instinct for change after eight years of White House control is one reason it’s so difficult for a party to hold the White House for a third consecutive term. In the past six decades, that’s happened only once, in 1988, when then-vice president George H.W. Bush was elected to succeed the popular President Reagan during a prosperous time.
This time, Obama’s approval rating in recent months has risen above 50%, the highest level for him in nearly three years and a crucial dividing line.
Political scientist Alan Abramowitz of Emory University studied the relationship between an outgoing president’s approval rating and his party’s prospects in the next election. Since World War II, the three candidates who sought to succeed presidents with approval ratings below 50% were defeated. Two of three candidates who sought to succeed presidents who had approval ratings above 50% won the popular vote.
That is crucial for Clinton, who of course wants to win. It’s also crucial for Obama, who wants Clinton to win, in part, to ensure that Republicans would be stymied in efforts to undermine the Affordable Care Act, revise financial regulations and reverse executive action on immigration — that is, to dismantle his legacy.
“Politically, having a Democrat succeed the president is critical, I think, to staying on the path that he has set forth,” John Podesta, a former White House counselor for Obama who is now chairman of Clinton’s campaign, told reporters. “It consolidates the gain that he’s made.”
In his address, Obama defended his legacy, attacked Trump — and lobbied for Clinton.
“If you’re serious about our democracy, you can’t afford to stay home just because she might not align with you on every issue,” he said to a roar from the arena. “And we’re going to carry Hillary to victory this fall, because that’s what the moment demands.”
“You have to be for continuity and change at the same time. That’s not an easy assignment.” Bill Galston, veteran Democratic strategist