Trade is the key issue in Rust Belt battleground
From Iowa to Pa., voters receptive to Trump’s ideas
Angst over trade is rusting the lock Democrats have enjoyed on the industrial Midwest in recent presidential elections, turning the region into perhaps the central battleground in the contest between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
From eastern Iowa to western Pennsylvania, the Rust Belt has proven widely and unexpectedly receptive to Trump’s candidacy and may represent his only viable pathway to victory, party leaders, operatives and observers said in interviews at both party conventions over the past week.
Recognizing this, both campaigns are building infrastructure in the states and formulating key decisions based on how they’ll play with Midwestern voters.
“If we don’t have a change of the map from Pennsylvania through Iowa, then we’re not going to win this election,” twotime Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum told Iowa’s convention delegation in Cleveland last week.
President Obama carried Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and their collective 70 electoral votes in 2012. Should that Democratic firewall erode and some or all of those states flip to Trump, it could represent the most significant electoral swing of any region in the country: If all five went for Trump while the rest of the electoral map remained unchanged from 2012, he would win.
And polling from across the region suggests Trump is competitive. Clinton holds leads in all five of those states, according to polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics, but with margins of less than 6 percentage points.
Iowa is the closest, with averages showing a 0.5 percentagepoint advantage for Clinton.
“You go right across — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa are all places where Trump is at or ahead of Romney’s numbers,” political statistician Nate Silver told The
Des Moines Register in Cleveland. Iowa, a perennial presidential swing state, sits on the far western border of the industrial crescent surrounding the Great Lakes, but appears to be among the most competitive and will be a frequent stop for both candidates in the weeks to come — including on Thursday, when Trump makes his first visit to the state since the Feb. 1 caucuses.
Why is the Midwest looking so close?
Consider the views of Jesse Gonzales. The 26-year-old from Lakewood, Ohio, was a magnet for reporters on the first day of the Republican National Convention last week when he went strolling through a downtown Cleveland plaza wearing a Trump campaign hat and an AK-47 rifle strapped to his back.
But the most critical political issue he saw — besides maintaining rights of gun owners — was a lack of economic opportunity. And he blamed trade policy for it.
“The government is not being protectionist enough,” Gonzales said. “It’s the government’s job to ensure that our economy is func- tional and they failed to do so. They’ve made sure that other country’s economies flourish.”
Indeed, Dennis Kucinich, a former congressman from Cleveland and Democratic candidate for president, pointed to global trade and free-trade agreements as the primary factor putting the Rust Belt in play this year.
“Trade has stripped this area not just of the financial power of major industries but also thousands of small manufacturing and companies” he said. “NAFTA, the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade, China trade and now the Trans-Pacific Partnership all are part of a disaffection that working people have with both political parties.”
Kucinich, known as a liberal during his time in office, said he was not comfortable with Trump’s political style but credited him with recognizing the political potency of trade and addressing the issue more clearly than any candidate in the race.
Hillary Clinton has taken a more nuanced approach on the trade issue. As first lady, a U.S. senator and secretary of State, she took a range of positions on various trade deals, and since becoming a presidential candidate she has suggested changes are necessary to the pending TransPacific Partnership. Her chief Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders, ran heavily on opposition to free trade during his challenge to Clinton — leading Trump to explicitly court Sanders voters in recent weeks.
“To all the Bernie voters who want to stop bad trade deals & global special interests, we wel- come you with open arms. People first,” Trump tweeted on July 12.
Santorum, who represented western Pennsylvania in Congress before going to the Senate, recalled attending a Trump event in the traditionally Democratic town of Monessen, Pa., last month and encountering several onetime Democrats now supporting the GOP nominee.
“Trump is able to get voters who feel disenchanted from Democrats because Hillary Clinton is a Wall Street globalist,” Santorum said. “She is a not a blue-collar, working person’s candidate, and Trump is.”
Republicans in Cleveland contended that vice presidential nominee Mike Pence’s addition to the ticket would further boost Trump’s chances in the region, as the Indiana governor reflects Midwestern values and quells doubts about the nominee’s inconsistent record and bombastic rhetoric.
“He’s a conservative, Midwestern governor who’s had a good track record of bringing jobs to Indiana,” Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad said. “He’s stable, reliable and he’s both a social and economic conservative. I think he reassures people who may have had some misgivings.”
Clinton, in turn, is taking no chances in Iowa and across the region. After the convention, she’ll travel across Pennsylvania and into Ohio for her first campaign swing as the party nominee.
“It’s the government’s job to ensure that our economy is functional and they failed to do so.”
Jesse Gonzalez, 26, of Ohio