Fantasy stock: Gordon up, Hyde down
The dirty little secret fantasy football owners don’t want to admit right now is that, despite all of the offseason planning, the predraft preparation, the scouting of preseason games and the crunching of numbers, we really have no idea what’s going to happen once the season kicks off.
Everything teams have been doing leading up to their season openers is a watered-down version of what we’ll see in Week 1.
More than anything else, fantasy owners’ decisions right now are based more on perception. So roughly a week before the regular season starts, here are a few players whose fantasy values are moving in opposite directions.
RISING WR Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns.
There has to be a built-in amount of skepticism for someone who hasn’t played a regular-season snap since Week 15 of the 2014 season. However, Gordon’s raw ability is undeniable — as his league-leading 1,646-yard performance in 2013 shows.
With new quarterback Robert Griffin III’s big arm, Gordon should be a big-play threat once again. He caught a pair of long gainers from Griffin for 87 total yards in Week 3 of the preseason. The risk of another season-ending suspension hangs over him, but his upside as a No. 3 fantasy wideout might be too good to pass up.
RB Christine Michael, Seat- tle Seahawks.
Thomas Rawls looked so good last year, leading the NFL with an average of 5.6 yards per carry, before breaking his ankle in Week 14. Although Rawls is expected to be healthy enough to start in the opener, Michael has used the extra reps this preseason to carve out a role as the Seahawks’ No. 2 back.
Although he has teased fantasy owners before, Michael has finally begun to turn his raw athleticism into on-field production (17 carries for 102 yards in Week 16 last year) in his second stint with the Seahawks.
WR Tajae Sharpe, Tennessee Titans.
A relative unknown when training camp opened, the fifth-round pick has steadily worked his way up to playing with the first unit. (In fact he’s been so impressive the Titans didn’t mind trading away last year’s first-round pick, Dorial Green-Beckham.)
The team made it a point to strengthen the running game this offseason with the additions of DeMarco Murray and Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. That could open up more room for Sharpe, who seems to have developed an excellent rapport with second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota. As a result, his average draft position of 125 is up 21⁄2 rounds from where it was just last week.
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys.
The rookie has been impressive this preseason, leading all quarterbacks with five TD passes through the first three weeks. With starter Tony Romo expected to miss six to 10 weeks, Prescott will take the reins of an offense that features a pair of first-round fantasy talents in wideout Dez Bryant and running back Ezekiel Elliott as well as one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.
Prescott’s running ability (he also has rushed for a pair of scores) can give the team another dimension and make him a potential fantasy starter once he finds his comfort zone. Romo’s eventual return limits Prescott’s ceiling, but he could be a capable bye-week fill-in.
FALLING
The preseason is notorious for raising fantasy owners’ expectations without revealing any corroborating evidence. And because most projected starters are unlikely to play in their teams’ final preseason games, it’s going to be especially tough to get a read on these guys.
RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs.
Returning from a torn anterior cruciate ligament that ended his 2015 season after five games, Charles is not progressing as quickly as fantasy owners had hoped. He is not getting many snaps with the firstteam offense in practice, and he has yet to appear in a preseason game.
Still, the 29-year-old is coming off draft boards as if he’s all the way back, ranking as the No. 14 player overall in standard scoring leagues and No. 18 in point-per-reception formats. The Chiefs looked just as effective last season with Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West in the backfield. This could turn into a full-fledged running back committee.
WR DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins.
Parker battled injuries in 2015 but came on strong with 22 catches and three touchdowns over the final six weeks of his rookie season. With offensive whiz Adam Gase taking over as head coach, fantasy owners pegged Parker as a top breakout candidate. However, a hamstring injury has slowed his progress, and his draft stock has plummeted nearly two full rounds over the past month.
RB Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers.
New coach Chip Kelly should bring volume to the offensive attack, but the Niners need the personnel to make it work. Hyde is coming off surgery in January for a foot injury that ended his 2015 season after seven games. And he suffered a concussion in last week’s preseason game.
Although he appears to be on track to play in Week 1, can he stay healthy for an entire season? Can he be an effective receiver out of the backfield? The 49ers have too many unanswered questions on offense, especially considering the way things ended so badly for Kelly last year with the Philadelphia Eagles.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers.
Benjamin’s return from a torn knee ligament that sidelined him last season figured to give the Panthers passing game a huge (6-5, 245) upgrade. However, Benjamin, who racked up 1,008 receiving yards and nine TD catches in 2014, hasn’t seen much game action this preseason and has been outplayed by second-year wideout Devin Funchess. Don’t forget about Greg Olsen, who ranked third in the NFL among tight ends last year with 124 targets.