Arkansas, Bielema go all-in with analytics
The guy with the thick notebook did not have a hand in making the boldest call.
The wide receiver reverse, quarterback throwback for the tying two-point conversion with 63 seconds left?
“That’s just good ol’ football coaching right there,” says Bret Bielema, and even through the phone you can hear the twinkle in his eye.
A double-overtime road win against a ranked opponent will produce that. We’ll get to more about Arkansas’ 41-38 win Saturday at then-No. 12 TCU, and its possible meaning, in a moment. First, let’s talk about the guy carrying the notebook and how he might be changing how Bielema makes decisions.
He is Rob Ash, the former Montana State head coach who’s now an offensive analyst at Arkansas. He works with Razorbacks coaches during the week. He was hired to help Bielema use analytics to find an edge, which is how he came to roam the sideline with something that looks like a small-town phone book.
“It’s the ‘ Moneyball’ approach to football,” Bielema says.
Should you punt? Kick a field goal? Go for it?
Should you kick the extra point? Go for two?
The Championship Analytics game book has an answer for those and other situations, all broken down by field position, time of game, score differential — and customized as well, based on statistical analyses of your players’ current abilities and your opponents’ abilities, too. It spits out an answer, color-coded by situation.
Ash pitched Bielema on the idea, and it was an inside job. His brother, Scott Ash, is Championship Analytics’ director of football strategy. (At one time, Scott worked with Rob at Montana State doing some of the things Rob is doing with Bielema.)
Bielema is no stranger to trying new stuff. He was one of the early adopters of virtual reality, using technology developed by STRIVR Labs to train players.
“Any way we can gain an advantage,” says Bielema, whose reaction to the analytics game book was similar to when he first saw the virtual reality prototypes.
“This is a game-changer,” he says. “There’s no doubt in my mind that in two years every team in the country is going to use these analytics. It’s too good.”
In the Razorbacks first two games, Bielema says, he has checked with Ash maybe half the time. As important are thriceweekly meetings he holds with Ash and the study Bielema does a couple of days before games to familiarize himself with the updated game book. (The data changes week to week with new results and new opponents.) “It’s really cool,” Bielema says. What’s even cooler, at least from Arkansas’ perspective, is beating TCU to go to 2-0 — and how the Razorbacks did it.
“There were a lot of ‘my goodnesses,’ ” Bielema says.
As the fourth quarter progressed Saturday night in Fort Worth, it was easy to see what was coming. Arkansas had the lead, but the Hogs were going wobbly again. Then sure enough, they gave it all away. TCU rallied from down 20-7 to lead 28-20 in the final two minutes.
We had seen this from the Razorbacks. In the early parts of Bielema’s first three years, they regularly had trouble finishing opponents — and it has been part of the reason they’ve struggled to notch early wins. David Ubben of
Sports on Earth unearthed this nugget: Arkansas was 2-11 against Power Five opponents in games played before Oct. 20.
Saturday the results were different. The stat the Hogs can point to is this: They have won their last three road games against ranked opponents.
“The scars of the past propel you to the future,” says Bielema, whose team entered the Amway Coaches Poll on Sunday at No. 24. “There’s no doubt in my mind if we hadn’t gone through the past and lived them and unfortunately relived them a couple of times, we wouldn’t have handled adversity (against TCU).”
After TCU took the eight-point lead with 2:05 left, Arkansas needed only 62 seconds to score on Austin Allen’s 16-yard pass to Keon Hatcher. (They were aided by TCU quarterback Kenny Hill, whose decision to do the throatslash gesture after the touchdown gave Arkansas great field position.) Then came that trick play for the tying two-point conversion. This time, Hatcher threw to Allen.
And then, because nothing is ever easy, the Razorbacks needed a blocked field goal attempt — thank goodness for the long arm and big hand of 6-10 lineman Dan Skipper — to force overtime.
Finally in double overtime, Allen kept on a power running play, bulling his way into the end zone for a very important win.
“No one in the building was expecting that one except our offensive coordinator and our quarterback,” Bielema says. “(Allen) all of the sudden turned into a power running back as well. It was pretty funny.” FOLLOW REPORTER GEORGE SCHROEDER @GeorgeSchroeder for sports news and analysis.