SIZING UP THE CHASE
Field could be volatile,
The Chase for the Sprint Cup is on, and NASCAR’s 16-driver elimination style playoff is one of the most unpredictable in sports. What’s in store for the 10 weeks of chaos?
USA TODAY Sports takes a look at some story lines, key races and, yes, predictions.
FAMILY FEUDS
The NASCAR community is often viewed as one big family, but the Chase seems to strain those relationships every year.
In the first two years of the current Chase format, we saw Matt Kenseth vs. Brad Keselowski between the haulers at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Keselowski vs. Jeff Gordon (with an assist from Kevin Harvick) at Texas Motor Speedway, Harvick vs. Jimmie Johnson in the Chicagoland Speedway motor home lot and Kenseth vs. Joey Logano at Martinsville Speedway.
That’s not even the full list. So with Kenseth again mad at Keselowski after an incident at Richmond International Raceway and Tony Stewart seeming to not care who he wrecks heading into his final 10 races, this Chase likely will see more fireworks.
MISS YOU, DALE
The two most popular drivers over the last 15 years have been Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Gordon. Neither is in this year’s Chase.
Gordon has two races left in his brief return from retirement — at Dover International Speedway and Martinsville — and Earnhardt won’t race at all while recovering from a concussion.
It is the first time since 2005 that neither Gordon nor Earnhardt is part of the playoff.
It will be interesting to see if fans remain as engaged with two of the sport’s biggest names out of the spotlight portion of the season.
CAN TOYOTAS BE CAUGHT?
The Toyotas from Joe Gibbs Racing and Furniture Row Racing won seven of eight races in one spring stretch before going quiet for five weeks in the summer.
Had the competition caught up? Nope. Heading into the Chase, the Toyotas have won five of the last eight races — including two in a row — and half of the regular season events overall.
Equally impressive: Each of the five main Toyota drivers have multiple wins: Kyle Busch, four; Denny Hamlin, three; Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Martin Truex Jr., two each).
HOMESTRETCH FOR SPRINT First it was the Chase for the Nextel Cup. Then it was the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Next year? We don’t know. Sprint will end its NASCAR sponsorship after this season, and NASCAR has yet to announce a title sponsor.
The “Chase” and the “Cup” part of the playoff ’s title aren’t likely to go anywhere; it’s just the middle part that’s undetermined.
ROOKIES IMPRESS Before this season, one rookie had made the Chase in its history (2004-present): Hamlin in 2006.
But this year, two rookies made the playoff: Chase Elliott and Chris Buescher.
Elliott wasn’t much of a surprise, given the hype surrounding his entrance into the Cup Series, but Buescher was certainly a shock despite winning the Xfinity Series title last year.
Now the question is: How far can they go?
REPEAT THE FEAT? No one has won back-to-back Cup titles since Jimmie Johnson went on his run of five from 2006 to 2010.
So can Busch break the streak? It’s possible. Not only does he drive for this season’s best team, Joe Gibbs Racing, but Busch is tied for the series lead with four wins and ranks first in laps led.
Given he won last year’s championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, there’s little evidence to suggest he couldn’t do it again.
HISTORY IN THE MAKING? Johnson isn’t a favorite for the championship this year and is on pace for career lows in several statistical categories. But this Chase format means anything can happen, and the No. 48 team — Johnson, mad genius crew chief Chad Knaus, a smart staff of engineers and a fast pit crew — can certainly make a title run.
If he wins it, Johnson will tie Dale Earnhardt Sr. and Richard Petty for most championships at seven. Wouldn’t it be interesting if it happened in a year in which his cars weren’t at their best?
TALLADEGA’S LAST CALL Having Talladega Superspeedway as an elimination race in the Chase is absolutely crazy. There’s way too much on the line and it’s too much of a crapshoot to help determine a champion.
But for the third year, Talladega is the cutoff race for the second round, though it might be the last time.
Next year’s schedule has Talladega as the middle race of Round 2 with Kansas Speedway in the elimination slot. So if you like the insanity of Talladega as a Chase-deciding race, enjoy this year’s edition Oct. 23.
KEY DATES Some Chase races are more important than others when it comes to winning a championship. Our ranking from most important to least:
1. Homestead-Miami; 2. Phoenix International Raceway; 3. Talladega; 4. Dover; 5. Texas; 6; Martinsville; 7. Kansas; 8. Char- lotte; 9. New Hampshire Motor Speedway; 10. Chicagoland.
OUR PICKS USA TODAY Sports’ motor sports staff is picking Harvick, Truex, Busch and Hamlin to make the final four at Homestead.
Each of the four staff members — writers Jeff Gluck and Brant James, editor Heather Tucker and digital producer Ellen J. Horrow — submitted their final four picks ranked by level of confidence.
Four points were given to each person’s top pick, three points to second, two to third and one to fourth.
Based on that, Harvick was the No. 1 selection with 11 votes, followed closely by Truex, then Busch and Hamlin. Just missing the cut was Keselowski (four points), while Logano and Kenseth got one point apiece.
That means drivers such as Edwards and Johnson weren’t included in any of the final four picks, which is a bit surprising. They join seven other drivers (Stewart and Kurt Busch among them) who did not receive any votes.
Truex and Harvick appeared on all four ballots, though each staff member ranked a different driver first.
SHOULD YOU TRUST US? How good are we at predictions? It’s mixed.
Tucker had 13 of the Chase drivers correct, James had 12, and Gluck limped to the finish with 10.
Tucker (13): Predicted Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Earnhardt; missed Buescher, Stewart, Jamie McMurray.
James (12): Predicted Earnhardt, Bowyer, Newman, Danica Patrick; missed Elliott, Austin Dillon, Stewart, Buescher.
Gluck (10): Predicted Earnhardt, Aric Almirola, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Blaney, Bowyer, Newman; missed Elliott, Buescher, Dillon, McMurray, Stewart, Kyle Larson.