Self-driving revolution will go slowly
Survey finds almost two-thirds of people not sold on idea, but fear of tech drops with exposure
Automakers and tech companies insist self-driving cars will pull up in five years.
But the self-driving revolution may be stuck in the slow lane for some time, according to a Kelley Blue Book poll out Wednesday.
Some 62% of those surveyed by the auto-valuation outfit “don’t think all vehicles will be fully autonomous in my lifetime.” More surprisingly, a third of Gen Z respondents (ages 12 to 15) agree, which means we will still be driving ourselves towards the end of this century.
That’s a far cry from 2021, the self-driving car arrival date recently put forth by Google, Ford, Uber and others.
“This shows that while many of us have been reading a lot about progress being made on self-driving cars of late, to most people it’s still like a flying car, something out of The Jetsons,” says Kelley Blue Book senior analyst Karl Brauer. “But we also learned that while it’s hard to get people on board, any level of exposure changes perceptions quickly.”
The Kelley poll surveyed 2,264 people ages 12 to 64, and so included some who weren’t yet drivers. It also included owners of cars with some self-driving features, such as a Tesla Model S or a Mercedes E-Class. In that group, 94% were comfortable with the safety provided by cars that can drive themselves with no input at all from passengers, compared to 39% of those who did not own cars with self-driving options.
Self-driving car advocates contend the technology can greatly reduce the nation’s 35,000 annual
“To most people it’s still like a flying car, something out of ‘The Jetsons.’ ” Karl Brauer, Kelley Blue Book senior analyst
traffic deaths, a vast majority of which are caused by human error. The few accidents involving Google’s autonomous cars have been the fault of other drivers, including one recent collision caused by a driver who ran a red light.
Skeptics argue the tech raises issues that include regulation, safety and privacy.
Nearly a third of poll respondents (30%) said a key catalyst to the adoption of fully self-driving cars — so-called Level 5 autonomy as defined by the Society of American Engineers — was “trying the technology without fully committing.”
“What is a hard-sell, however, is this idea of having no control at all of the vehicle,” Brauer says. Both Google and Ford have explicitly said they’re aiming to create vehicles for the ride-hailing market by 2021 that do not have steering wheels or pedals.