Five matchups that will determine the winner,
Cubs full of aces, sluggers; bullpen, speed carry Indians
A lengthy World Series title drought is going to end this season for either the Chicago Cubs or the Cleveland Indians. USA TODAY Sports examines the major factors that will largely determine the winner:
CUBS ROTATION VS. INDIANS BULLPEN
Besides the Cubs leading the majors with 103 wins, their 3.15 ERA was the lowest of any team. And it wasn’t particularly close. (The Washington Nationals were next at 3.51.)
Chicago’s starters were even better with a 2.96 ERA. Individually, Kyle Hendricks (2.13) and Jon Lester (2.44) ranked first and second overall — with Jake Arrieta (3.10) and John Lackey (3.35) also among the top 25.
On the other side, the Indians staff — seventh in the majors with a 3.84 ERA in the regular season — has dominated the postseason, allowing 14 earned runs in eight games (1.77 ERA).
In beating the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays in the AL playoffs, the Indians maximized the effectiveness of their three best pitchers. Ace Corey Kluber and relievers Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have thrown more than half (372⁄ 3) of the team’s 71 postseason innings — and combined for an ERA of 0.48.
CUBS’ POWER VS. INDIANS’ SPEED
Hits have been scarce this postseason, but the Cubs have been timely, averaging 4.8 runs per game despite a .222 average and .277 on-base percentage in 10 games. That’s just slightly below the five runs they averaged during the regular season.
“In the playoffs, you’ve seen a lot of home runs winning the game,” said Kris Bryant, who led the team with 39 homers during the regular season. “I know we’ve had a couple.”
Javier Baez hit a solo homer for the only run in the division series opener against the San Francisco Giants. Miguel Montero’s pinch-hit grand slam was the decisive blow in the NL Championship Series opener vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. Addison Russell had two huge NLCS homers.
The Indians have needed every hit they’ve gotten during the playoffs, scoring 27 runs in winning seven of eight (3.4 per game). Shortstop Francisco Lindor is the only regular who has hit for an average above .270.
The Indians have slugged 11 home runs, but they might need to take advantage of their exceptional team speed against the Cubs pitching staff.
Cleveland led the AL in stolen bases (134) and stolen-base percentage (81%).
CUBS’ VERSATILITY VS. INDIANS’ X FACTOR
“I bring four (gloves) with me on the road wherever I go,” Bryant says — two for third base, one for the outfield and one for first base.
Baez has played every infield position, making several highlight-reel plays at second base in October.
Veteran Ben Zobrist has seen action in the infield and the outfield. And Willson Contreras has played catcher and left field.
The Indians make more use of platoon situations with outfielders Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer better against left-handed pitching and Tyler Naquin and Coco Crisp facing mostly righthanders.
In addition, Cleveland will have pitcher Danny Salazar on the World Series roster after he missed more than six weeks with a forearm injury.
Salazar pitched a three-inning simulated game Sunday and came through without any complications. Although he might not be able to go more than that in a game, the Indians have already shown that they don’t need their starters to go too deep before turning things over to the bullpen.
The Cubs could also have an X factor of their own in Kyle Schwarber, who tore ligaments in his knee in the second game of the season but has progressed all the way back to playing games in the Arizona Fall League.
DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE
The Cubs were one of the best teams in the majors by a number of defensive metrics. With +82 Defensive Runs Saved, the Cubs finished 31 ahead of the secondplace Houston Astros. They were also No. 1 by a large margin in Ultimate Zone Rating and in Defensive Wins Above Replacement.
“Our defense is really fun to watch,” outfielder Jason Heyward said. “It’s something that I appreciate as somebody who loves to play defense. These guys take a lot of pride in it, and we feed off each other.”
“We have that competition too,” Baez said. “Everybody making plays all over the place has been really great for us.”
The Indians were no slouches, ranking ninth in DRS, fourth in UZR and fifth in defensive WAR.
MADDON VS. FRANCONA
One thing seems apparent in this matchup: It features the two best managers in the majors.
Cubs manager Joe Maddon is famous for his quirks and oddball traditions, but he also has been among the first to bring advanced statistical analysis from the computer to the dugout.
“He’s always pushed the envelope trying to do some things, whether it’s playing four outfielders against (David) Ortiz,” Indians manager Terry Francona said. “The one thing he’s had the ability to do is keep a clubhouse together, which is saying a lot during the course of 162 games.”
Maddon is making his third World Series appearance — as a coach with the Los Angeles Angels in 2002 and manager of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008. Meanwhile, Francona helped end another famous title drought in Boston as the Red Sox skipper in 2004.
“At the end of the day, it’s not about me or Tito; it’s about players,” Maddon said. “If your guys play better than their guys, you win.”
PREDICTION:
Cubs in 6