Dolphins can make run, but Lions are not legitimate
The NFL’s midseason point almost is here, but not everything is as it appears. There’s still time for faltering teams to right the ship, and others might not be as solid as they seem.
Here are five overreactions we’re pushing back on this week:
Sunday night’s offensive futility spells trouble for the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals.
Here are two nuggets from NFL research: The 6-6 tie between the Seahawks and the Cardinals was the lowest-scoring overtime game in league history. And there have been three games this season with fewer than 10 points scored through the first three quarters; Seattle played in all three of them.
But don’t be fooled by the offensive ineptitude.
The Seahawks (4-1-1) and Cardinals (33-1) are still the best teams in the NFC West. They have talented and physical defenses — units that have proved to be their respective strengths this season.
So how best to explain Sunday’s offensive showing?
These are teams that know each other very well, teams built similarly: dynamic athletes in the secondary, talented stars at skill positions and severe questions on the offensive line. Arizona and Seattle just match up very well against each other.
Against the rest of the NFL? That’s a different story.
Seattle’s defense continues to be one of the league’s best and can suffocate even the most potent offenses. Arizona’s is steadily improving.
Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have played their best football after October. Their annual surge might be coming.
Both of these squads, especially Seattle, should still be considered dangerous.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is back to being the New York Jets’ answer at quarterback.
Poor Geno Smith. Just when it appears he’ll finally have his shot to show New York’s front office and coaching staff what he can do, he suffers a knee injury that forces him out of Sunday’s 24-16 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. An MRI on Monday revealed that Smith suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament, and he will miss the remainder of the season.
So even though Fitzpatrick was benched last Wednesday, of course he would come in as a backup and lead the Jets to a come-from-behind victory. Let’s pump the brakes, however, on any thought about Fitzpatrick reclaiming his preseason standing as the solution at quarterback.
Best-case scenario, he’s a stopgap solution until one of New York’s younger passers — 2015 fourth-round pick Bryce Petty or rookie second-round selection Christian Hackenberg — emerges.
The Jets are 2-5 and postseason long shots. They have two games left against the New England Patriots, two against the surging Miami Dolphins and one against former coach Rex Ryan’s Buffalo Bills.
Fitzpatrick is on a one-year deal, and he’ll turn 34 next month. It’s extremely unlikely he’ll be back with the team next season. So he can complain in postgame news conferences all he wants about how owner Woody Johnson, general manager Mike Maccagnan and coaches stopped believing in him when he was benched.
He’s still the one who tossed 11 interceptions against just five touchdowns in the team’s first six games after holding out for six months this offseason before signing a $12 million deal.
The Jets should use the remainder of the season to figure out what they really have in Petty.
A victory against a mediocre Ravens team shouldn’t change anything. The Jets are still looking for a long-term solution at quarterback.
The Dallas Cowboys are still the clear NFC East front-runners.
Remember the jokes from last season? NFC Least?
Well in 2016, the NFC East is the sole division in football with all four teams sitting above .500.
The Cowboys are at 5-1 after their bye week, and the Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins and New York Giants all have four victories.
The teams have played eight of the regular season’s collective 24 division games, which means there’s time for a shake-up and movement across the standings.
Dallas does have the look of a contender with a dominant offensive line, reliable rushing attack and efficient quarterback play. But the Eagles are coming off of an impressive victory against the previously undefeated Minnesota Vikings in which Philly’s defense again shined.
Week 8’s huge showdown between Philadelphia and Dallas could give us the early indication about which squad has the inside track, but this division is entirely up for grabs.
The 4-3 Detroit Lions are contenders.
Let’s start by giving Detroit credit. Matthew Stafford is playing excellent football and has become a fringe name populating the way-too-early MVP race. The team has hit a midseason stride and is trending up after beating Washington 20-17 Sunday.
But the Lions still have a 0-2 NFC North record. And they play in the same division as the stalwart Vikings and Green Bay Packers, two teams that look poised for a postseason run.
Since the organization made the switch to Jim Bob Cooter as its offensive coordinator last season, Stafford has played the best and most efficient football of his career. But the team isn’t without flaws.
Detroit’s method isn’t sustainable. All four of the Lions’ victories this year have happened because of a game-winning drive by Stafford. The defense has put Detroit in an early hole. And slow starts have plagued the offense.
The Lions have a solid young core, but their two-deep still isn’t quite on par with those of the Vikings and Packers. Until they fill gaps on the roster, they’re likely still a year or two away from truly contending.
The remainder of Detroit’s NFC North schedule this season should make that clear.
The Dolphins’ offensive improvement is a fluke.
Miami started its season 1-4 and looked like it was descending into full rebuilding mode.
But in the last two weeks, the Dolphins have defeated two playoff-contending teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Bills. What changed? Two things. The Dolphins have discovered a workhorse running back in Jay Ajayi. But more important, the team’s offensive line is finally a cohesive unit.
The starting five features four firstround selections. And now that they’re all healthy and playing together, center Mike Pouncey, left guard Laremy Tunsil, left tackle Branden Albert, right tackle Ja’Wuan James and right guard Jermon Bushrod have become a reliable force.
Those five played together for the first time at the start of the Steelers game in Week 6. Since then, Miami has scored five rushing touchdowns and gained 478 rushing yards at 6.2 yards per carry.
Ajayi, who was left at home as a healthy scratch for the season opener, is now the bell-cow beneficiary. He became the fourth running back in NFL history to post consecutive games of 200 rushing yards or more, joining Hall of Famers O.J. Simpson and Earl Campbell as well as former Dolphins standout Ricky Williams. And he did it in two of his first three career starts.
Not to be lost in all of this, the Steelers and Bills defenses, worthy units in their own right, sacked Ryan Tannehill only once.
Miami (3-4) still has work to do to contend for an AFC wild-card spot, but its chances of doing so got a lot better with the cohesion of that offensive front and Ajayi hauling the ball.