HALF OF FINAL FOUR VIRTUALLY DECIDED
Johnson, Harvick perfectly positioned
Welcome to NASCAR’s round of the foregone conclusion. Or maybe this time, specious speculation. The statistics are convincing.
Among the supposed certainties in this final three-race segment of the Chase for the Sprint Cup is that on Nov. 6, six-time series champion Jimmie Johnson will win at Texas Motor Speedway to automatically advance to the Homestead-Miami Speedway final for the first time since this version of the playoffs made its debut in 2014. And one week later, on cue, 2014 series champion Kevin Harvick should claim victory at Phoenix International Raceway to secure a spot in the four-driver championship for the third consecutive year.
Johnson has won six times (including five of the last eight) at the 1.5-mile Texas oval. He is a statistical probability to do so again. And Harvick has been even more imperious at the 1-mile Phoenix oval with eight wins, including six in eight races.
If Johnson and Harvick are predictable, then the opener of the round Sunday at half-mile Martinsville Speedway (Goody’s Fast Relief 500, 1 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network) becomes incredibly important.
In a playoff format that emphasizes meddlesome variables — track oddities (Talladega Superspeedway), season-ending parts failures (Martin Truex Jr.) and ridiculousness (hot dog wrappers on Brad Keselowski’s grille) — and acrimony (Matt Kenseth vs. Joey Logano last season at Martinsville), then the old track in the Virginia hills would seemingly present the only result etched in pencil this round.
Certainly, there are likely candidates to win the coveted grandfather clock. Johnson is the active leader with eight wins at the 0.526-mile paper-clip-shaped track but hasn’t been to victory lane there since 2013. There’s Virginian Denny Hamlin, who was bolstered emotionally after earning the final third-round advancement spot on a tiebreaker after finishing third at Talladega last weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has won at Martinsville five times, most recently in the spring of 2015. Five drivers still title-eligible have won at Martinsville since 2011.
And then there’s Jeff Gordon, substituting for the last time this season for injured Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the No. 88 Chevrolet. He has won there nine times, including last season when he assumed the lead after Logano was shunted off by vengeful, lapped Kenseth. The four-time series champion would make everyone forget about the championship for a while Sunday if he were to win there again.
The 45-year-old leads all active drivers in wins, top-fives (29), top-10s (37) and average finish (6.8) in 46 starts.
It would not be surprising if Sunday was about Gordon — who officially retired last season and now is probably making his final start — but the rest of this round will be about Johnson and Harvick, no matter what they do at Texas and Phoenix, respectively. That’s because this round represents the first time that two forces of performance and repu- tation tussle for the same space in this modern Chase.
Johnson was the irresistible force of the previous iterations, pre-eliminations, winning five consecutive titles beginning in 2006 and another in 2013 with devastating drives through the late autumn. He has 18 victories and an average finish of 7.9 combined at Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix.
Harvick has been the survivalist of the elimination format, summoning imperative victories at dramatic moments to capture his first crown and finish second last season. He has nine wins and an average finish of 12.9 combined at the tracks in this round.
Next best? Hamlin, at eight and 10.9.
Maybe this round is almost figured out already. But we’re too skeptical for that, right?