Conference races remain in flux with two weeks left
While only four teams get to go to the College Football Playoff, plenty of others have a lot to play for as the season winds down and conference races throughout the Football Bowl Subdivision are decided.
We’ll state up front that the Southeastern Conference championship game pairing has been decided as Alabama will play Florida and that the Big 12 championship will come down to the head-to-head showdown between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State on Dec. 3.
By popular demand, here’s how the other eight FBS conference races stand.
American Athletic: Navy has clinched the West and will meet Temple or South Florida for the title. The Midshipmen likely would earn hosting privileges for the AAC finale with a win Saturday at SMU, but it might depend on who prevails in the East. Temple, which owns a head-to-head tiebreaker against USF, needs only to beat East Carolina to clinch the division. But if the Owls lose and the Bulls win, South Florida would take the East and host the championship game thanks to its head-to-head win against Navy. Since the Midshipmen and Owls did not play during the regular season, the right to host likely would be determined by an average of computer ratings.
Atlantic Coast: Clemson has won the Atlantic Division. The Coastal looks more interesting but is a two-horse race between Virginia Tech and North Carolina. The Hokies can win it on their own by beating Virginia, while the Tar Heels would need to defeat North Carolina State and hope Virginia Tech stumbles. Should both lose, it’s possible for the division to wind up in a fourway tie that would involve Pittsburgh and Miami, but the Hokies swept those three and hold all tiebreakers.
Big Ten: It was close, but nothing changed in the East last weekend. Michigan can win the division on its own by winning at Ohio State, and Penn State needs to defeat Michigan State and hope the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines. Ohio State’s chance to play for the title is if the Spartans can upset the Nittany Lions. The West could conceivably finish in a four-way tie, but in truth only Wisconsin or Nebraska is mathematically able to win it. The Badgers can take it themselves by beating Minnesota, while Nebraska must win at Iowa and hope the Golden Gophers topple Wisconsin. But should the Badgers and Cornhuskers both lose, resulting in said four-way logjam, Wisconsin would win the division anyway. Minnesota and Nebraska would be eliminated with 1-2 records against the other three, and Wisconsin would prevail by virtue of its head-to-head win against Iowa.
Conference USA: Louisiana Tech has clinched the West and can earn hosting rights for the title game with a win Friday at Southern Miss, though the Golden Eagles need a victory in that game for bowl eligibility. Western Kentucky and Old Dominion are tied atop the East, with WKU holding a head-to-head advantage. The Hilltoppers win the division by beating Marshall, while the Monarchs need a win against Florida International then a WKU loss later Saturday.
Mid-American: The MAC West is a simple matter: The division championship goes to Friday’s winner of Toledo at Western Michigan. The East was decided Tuesday when Ohio defeated Akron 9-3.
Mountain West: Things are plenty interesting in the MWC. There is no suspense in the West Division, which San Diego State has had wrapped up for several weeks. The Aztecs’ loss at Wyoming, however, did complicate their quest to host the title game. SDSU hosts Colorado State on Saturday night, but even with a win the Aztecs might have to go back to Laramie or possibly Boise the following week to play for the championship. Wyoming, meanwhile, controls its fate in the Mountain. The Cowboys can clinch the division with a win at New Mexico or a Boise State loss at Air Force. The Broncos need to get by the Falcons and hope the Lobos can take down Wyoming. New Mexico’s loss at Colorado State last weekend cost the Lobos any shot at the division. The best New Mexico can do is finish in a three-way tie with the Cowboys and Boise State, and Wyoming would prevail there on the basis of its division record.
Pac-12: Two games this week- end will decide matters. The winner of Friday’s Apple Cup clash between Washington and Washington State in Pullman takes the North. Saturday, Colorado will look to win the South on its home field against Utah. Should the Utes prevail, the division title goes to Southern California.
Sun Belt: The conference does not stage a championship game, so two weeks remain in its season. Arkansas State, however, is a game clear in the standings thanks to back-to-back wins against New Mexico State and Troy. The RedWolves’ last two games are on the road, but they should nevertheless be favored in both against Louisville-Lafayette and Texas State as they look to claim the title outright. It’s highly unlikely, but the league could end in a three- or possibly four-way tie with Idaho also having only two league losses to date. Only the Vandals have their last two games at home, finishing with South Alabama and Georgia State. The other contenders have to conclude things on the road. Appalachian State has only one Sun Belt game remaining this weekend at New Mexico State, while Troy visits Texas State and Georgia Southern.