LATE-GAME FAILURES BEDEVIL DENVER ‘D’
Long field goal try wasn’t worth risk
ENGLEWOOD, COLO. Chris Harris buttoned the cuffs on his shirt in the Denver Broncos locker room late Sunday night, speaking out loud to no one in particular after their 30-27 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. “Get ready to work tomorrow,” Harris said, shaking his head. “That’s all we can do.” fter the wild overtime game — won by the Chiefs on a bank-shot field goal with time expiring after Denver kicker Brandon McManus missed a 62-yarder — the Broncos found plenty of areas that deserved blame.
But Denver’s late defensive collapse was especially troubling because it is becoming a trend.
The Broncos defense allowed 10 fourthquarter points in a 30-20 loss to the Oakland Raiders three weeks ago and allowed the New Orleans Saints to drive for a touchdown with 1:28 remaining two weeks
With the calendar about to flip to December, the NFL’s regular season is officially entering its homestretch. But there’s still plenty of time to draw some dubious conclusions across the league.
Here are five overreactions we are pushing back on after Week 12. YOU CAN’T FAULT KUBIAK’S GAMBLE Denver Broncos coach Gary Kubiak went for the win in Sunday night’s crucial AFC West showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. But should he have done so? In this case, no. Trotting out kicker Brandon McManus on fourth-and-10 with 68 seconds left in overtime to make a decisive 62-yard field goal attempt was well-intentioned but reckless — and the Chiefs made Denver pay after McManus missed. Kubiak defended the decision by noting he was out of timeouts, meaning Denver almost surely wouldn’t have regained possession.
But that only underscores why, after he burned his second and final stoppage right before McManus’ kick, the coach should have punted and played for the tie.
Consider: In three seasons at Denver’s Mile High altitude, McManus’ career-long field goal is a modest 57 yards. There have been only six field goals of at least 62 yards in NFL history, though three did occur in Denver.
Yet according to ESPN Stats & Information, the Broncos’ win probability was highest had they punted (52%) instead of going for the first down (46.9%) or, worse, trying the field goal (41.1%).
To be fair, this was as tough a decision as a coach will face. Had the Broncos won, they would have moved into the AFC’s fifth playoff seed and gained a critical victory in the tiebreaker formula.
But what Kubiak perhaps failed to consider was that a tie would have left Denver even with Kansas City at 7-3-1, also putting both teams in wild-card position.
For now, the Broncos are on the outside looking in, and a 1-3 division record greatly reduces their margin for error as the reigning champs seek to secure a sixth consecutive playoff berth. THE RAIDERS CAN’T BE FOR REAL A 14-year streak without a playoff appearance looks like it’s about to end in Oakland.
The Raiders’ gritty, comefrom-behind victory against the Carolina Panthers, with quarterback Derek Carr playing through a finger injury, is another example that this team should be considered a contender. The AFC West-leading Silver & Black are 9-2 and projected to get a firstround bye.
But they’re still the Raiders, right? Oakland’s nine wins are the high-water mark since its Super Bowl XXXVII loss after the 2002 season.
Actually, that’s just one indicator that this squad is different.
The Raiders have won five in a row. Their 307 points are third most in the AFC. They’re undefeated (5-0) on the road. A dominant offensive line sets the tone and has allowed Carr to become one of the NFL’s top young pass- ers. Carr has engineered five fourth-quarter comebacks this year. The team’s skill-position players are young and talented, and the edge rushers — such as budding star Khalil Mack — can get after opposing passers, as Mack did against Cam Newton on Sunday.
Years of futility have given way to smart drafting and shrewd acquisitions in free agency. All that should pay off in January. DON’T BUY INTO THE BUCS Dirk Koetter is in his first season as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach, so a few bumps were to be expected.
But this team has caught fire, winning three in a row, including a victory against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium and Sunday’s defeat of the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks. The Bucs (6-5) are one game back of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South and a shade behind the Washington Redskins (6-4-1) for the NFC’s fi- nal wild-card berth.
Second-year quarterback Jameis Winston continues to make strides, forming a dangerous combination with dynamic receiver Mike Evans. But coordinator Mike Smith’s defense, which has allowed fewer than 300 yards per game during the hot streak, is a main reason this team looks like a playoff contender. Seattle converted one of 11 third-down attempts as the Bucs limited a red-hot offense to 245 total yards. Perhaps most impressive, the Seahawks never penetrated the red zone.
Tampa Bay faces one team with a current winning record over the final five weeks, so ignore the Bucs at your peril. SEATTLE SHOULD BE WORRIED This brings us to the Seahawks.
Their offensive line continues to be an issue, as it was in the 14-5 loss to Tampa Bay. On top of the third-down failures, Seattle’s running backs gained 38 yards and quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked six times.
But this is nothing new. The unit has been hampered by injuries — starting center Justin Britt was inactive Sunday, leading to another shuffle — and is one of the most inconsistent and inexperienced in the league. And don’t forget, several key defenders, including Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas, were out.
The letdown in Tampa also was consistent with the team’s struggles (2-3-1) on the road this year.
But in a down year for the NFC West, Seattle almost certainly will host a playoff game at CenturyLink Field — and, if the standings hold, that would come after a first-round bye.
The blocking and injuries could be potential fatal flaws, but Seattle is talented and deep — especially on defense — and has a championship pedigree. There’s a reason the locker room isn’t concerned. OSWEILER’S CONTRACT GIVES HIM A LONG LEASH It might not be time to pull the plug on the Brock Osweiler experiment, but could it be coming?
That four-year, $72 million contract looks worse and worse each week. The Houston Texans are on a two-game slide, including their first loss at home this season, Sunday’s 21-13 defeat against the San Diego Chargers. Osweiler completed 22 of 37 passes for 246 yards with three interceptions in front of the home crowd.
Though he’s still learning coach Bill O’Brien’s system, Osweiler has shown little improvement and has posted a passer rating above 90 just once. His 13 interceptions are tied for most in the league, and his 59.5% completion rate ranks 28th among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 throws. That puts him behind players such as the Los Angeles Rams’ Case Keenum, who was benched two weeks ago, struggling Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars and even Trevor Siemian, whom the Broncos used to replace Osweiler. Brian Hoyer, Houston’s quarterback in 2015, thoroughly outplayed Osweiler despite having an inferior supporting cast with the Chicago Bears this season.
O’Brien isn’t one to put financial considerations ahead of the team, but he said Monday, “Brock is our starting quarterback, and that’s the way it is.”
But will it be that way in a week if the Texans find their AFC South lead has completely evaporated?