Hall needs to be clean
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USA TODAY Sports is examining the most intriguing cases on baseball’s 2017 Hall of Fame ballot ahead of the Jan. 18 results.
Today: Trevor Hoffman. In the last 25 years, three men have held baseball’s all-time saves record. Trevor Hoffman slots in between Lee Smith and Mariano Rivera, both in line of succession and Hall of Fame viability.
This will be Smith’s 15th and final year on the ballot, and he’s expected to fall well short of the required 75% needed for election, his support dropping to 34% in 2016 after a peak of 51% in 2012.
Rivera, the New York Yankees legend, is widely expected to gain Hall entrance on his first ballot in 2019; various pundits have suggested he might be the first unanimous choice in history.
Then there’s Hoffman, whose 601 saves were eclipsed by Rivera’s 652 and who played most of his career with the San Diego Padres, reducing his exposure relative to Rivera, a TV fixture almost every October from 1996 to 2013.
Hoffman did not have the postseason opportunities or success Rivera enjoyed. Yet Hoffman, who earned 67% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, hardly took a back seat to Rivera when it came to late-inning effectiveness. In fact, you can almost make a case that a vote for Rivera should equal a vote for Hoffman.
The case for: Hoffman is bidding to become the sixth reliever inducted, albeit the first who spent nearly his entire career as a ninth-inning guy. Few performed that hyperspecialized role as long or as well as Hoffman.
He had 552 of his 601 saves in 16 years with the Padres. A brief falling-out with the front office sent him to the Milwaukee Brewers for whom, at 41, he converted 37 of 41 saves and made his seventh and final All-Star team in 2009.
Hoffman had nine seasons of at least 40 saves, capped by his 53-save masterpiece in 1998. Hoffman finished second in Cy Young Award balloting that year, buoyed by a 98% save rate (he blew one chance) and career-best 0.85 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched).
And it is in those rate stats where Hoffman stacks up favorably with Rivera. Hoffman has a career 1.06 WHIP, 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a save percentage of 89%.
Rivera spent one season as a starter and long reliever and another as a setup man. If we isolate his seasons spent as a closer, from 1997 to 2013, those numbers are strikingly similar to Hoffman’s: a 0.97 WHIP, 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings and, perhaps most important, an 89% conversion. In an odd coincidence, both samples come in 1,035 games.
Hoffman’s changeup was the West Coast answer to Rivera’s cutter, perhaps not as devastating as Rivera’s signature pitch, particularly against left-handers, but beguiling enough to punch out 1,133 batters over 1,0891⁄ innings. 3
The case against: Once again, Hoffman is aiming to join a fraternity in which the only members were more than just ninth-inning specialists. Hoffman recorded more than three outs in just 21% of his 1,035 appearances. The most recent reliever to earn induction, Goose Gossage in 2008, went more than an inning in 53% of his 466 outings spent as a full-time reliever. Hoffman stacks up better against his modern rival: Despite the prevailing narrative that Rivera often pitched one-plus innings, he recorded more than three outs in 24% of his appearances as Yankees closer.
While his changeup was often a great equalizer, there were times Hoffman was hittable. He gave up 100 home runs in his career, including three seasons giving up 10; Rivera gave up 62 as a closer.
And while the often-rebuilding Padres didn’t allow Hoffman to frequent the October stage like some of his contemporaries, he had his share of stumbles in the spotlight.
San Diego’s first playoff ap- pearance in 12 years ended when Hoffman gave up a tiebreaking two-run homer to the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brian Jordan in Game 3 of the 1996 National League Division Series.
Two years later, any chance the Padres had of getting back in the 1998 World Series ended in Game 3 when Hoffman gave up a three-run, eighth-inning homer to Yankees third baseman Scott Brosius, turning a 3-2 lead into a 5-3 deficit.
In 2007, the Padres season ended in Game 163 when Hoffman couldn’t hold a two-run lead in the 13th inning at Coors Field, yielding three runs to the Colorado Rockies in a 9-8 loss in a onegame playoff for the NL wild card.
Lookalikes: Baseball-Reference’s similarity score puts Hoffman in predictable company — Smith, Rivera and Billy Wagner, who remains on the Hall ballot with Hoffman. Other metrics aren’t as kind. Rivera obliterates Hoffman in Wins Above Replacement 57.1 to 28.4, and Hoffman barely outpoints Wagner (28.1) and trails Smith (29.6).
X factors: That Hoffman earned two-thirds support in his ballot debut augurs exceptionally well for his eventual inclusion. Always affable with the media, he remains an ambassador for the game in San Diego and across the major leagues, as the NL’s reliever of the year award now bears his name. He was named on 74% of the first 109 2017 ballots tracked by Hall vote watchdog Ryan Thibodaux, although non-public voters tend to be less charitable.
Consensus: It certainly appears to be a matter of when, and not if, for Hoffman’s day in Cooperstown. While many voters are averse to supporting relievers — and it would be patently unfair to see a flood of them inducted — Hoffman, like Rivera, is a special case. His 601 saves are an awful lot, a mark only one active player — Francisco Rodriguez, who has 430 — has a shot at.
Even if the bullpen paradigm eventually shifts back to placing higher value on multiple-inning guys, there’s no denying Hoffman was one of the best of his era. For that, he’ll receive the ultimate recognition.