Syria cease-fire takes effect
Truce backed by Russia and Turkey
A Syrian cease-fire backed by Russia and Turkey took effect at midnight Thursday, a move that could prompt a political settlement of a nearly 6-year-old civil war and a shift in U.S. policy under a Donald Trump presidency.
The national cease-fire agreement, announced by Syria’s military, does not cover the Islamic State and the al- Qaeda affiliate operating in Syria.
A member of one of Syria’s main rebel groups said the truce includes a halt to airstrikes and shelling. Ahmad Ramadan of the Syrian National Coalition told the Associated Press that rebel factions would abide by the truce but retaliate if the government and its partners violate the deal.
If it holds, the halt to hostilities between the regime of President Bashar Assad and rebels, who have lost ground in recent months, presents a major change as Trump prepares to assume office in three weeks.
Trump, who has criticized President Obama’s handling of the war and U.S. backing of rebel groups battling Assad, has suggested that Russia and Assad could be U.S. allies in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria.
Obama wants Assad to step down because of accusations of atrocities his regime has committed against the Syrian people, including the use of chemical weapons. Obama has refused to coordinate military strategy with Russia in Syria, where a U.S.-led coalition targets the Islamic State and Russian jets target all opponents of Moscow’s close ally Assad.
“Russia and Turkey are trying to put something in place before the new administration takes office,” says Robert Pearson, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey at the Middle East Institute. “It will be a kind of fait accompli with the Trump administration.”
Previous cease-fires have failed. Hundreds of groups are fighting in Syria, and a long-term solution would require cooperation from nations with vested interests in the war’s outcome, including Iran, which is aligned with Assad, and Saudi Arabia, which wants Assad out to reduce the influence of its enemy, Iran.
“The agreements reached are very fragile. They demand special attention and patience, a professional approach to these issues and a constant contact with our partners,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
Putin did not specify which rebel groups would participate in the truce, but Russia’s Defense Ministry said they would repre- sent 62,000 opposition fighters from across Syria.
Putin said the deal emerged from meetings in Moscow with foreign ministers from Russia, Turkey and Iran. The Turkish government opposes the Assad regime but worries his ouster might embolden Kurdish rebels in Syria to unite with Kurds in neighboring Iraq and Turkey to create an independent enclave.
The agreement may have a better chance than previous deals because conditions on the ground have placed Assad in a stronger position. This month, Syrian’s Russian-backed military drove rebel groups out of Aleppo, once Syria’s largest city, in a major defeat for opposition forces. Assad controls Damascus, the capital.
“Now Assad controls the two most important cities in the country,” Pearson says. “Rebels suffered a catastrophic defeat” in what he called “a horrific massacre” of civilians.
If the cease-fire holds, peace talks will take place in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana.
The agreement won’t affect the U.S.-led coalition bombing campaign against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq unless Trump orders a change.
Assad’s political future is not clear, but the agreement marginalizes the United States, which played a major role in earlier U.N.-brokered efforts to bring peace to the region.
“The only certainty is American influence is dead,” says Michael Rubin, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.