Mets not sure what Harvey can deliver
It’s one of those lazy, perfect afternoons in spring training that comes straight out of a Norman Rockwell painting — sunny, warm and full of hope. That’s what everyone dreams about when they hear January’s three most-blessed words: pitchers and catchers.
But don’t be fooled. The setting in Port St. Lucie, Fla., will be anything but laid back on the day Matt Harvey takes the mound. The New York Mets are awaiting the verdict on just how far the Dark Knight has progressed in the six months since surgery to correct symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome.
To say the organization is curious barely covers it.
No pitcher in camp will be more closely scrutinized than Harvey, starting with the first time he throws in the bullpen. He’ll graduate to live batting practice 10 days after that and, if all goes well, the former ace will appear in a Grapefruit League game in mid- to late March.
The blueprint is fluid, however, because, like everyone else, the Mets have no idea what to expect. That includes Harvey, though he recently cited progress, telling ESPN, “The ball is coming out really good right now. ... Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. (But) the way things are feeling now, the way the body feels, I’m feeling great.”
Harvey has been given a clean bill of health, as the surgery was a clinical success. Robert Thompson removed Harvey’s uppermost rib, which has relaxed the muscles that were constricting a nerve bridging the neck and shoulder. As a result, not only does Harvey’s delivery feel freer, he also has regained the feeling and warmth in his right hand, which had gone numb at times last summer.
That’s great news for everyone. You don’t have to be a Mets fan to root for Harvey to resume his career — the entire industry prospers when a supernova gets back on his feet. But there’s a wide gap between Harvey returning to the rotation and actually resurrecting his 2013 arsenal.
And therein lies the mystery: No one really knows what’s in store in 2017, if only because his injury is so rare in baseball. Unlike the data points that can guide a pitcher through recovery from Tommy John elbow surgery, Harvey is on his own rehabbing from thoracic outlet syndrome.
These are important questions for a pitcher who’ll be a free agent in two years. The right-hander earned a modest raise from the Mets on Friday, avoiding arbitration by settling on a $5.125 million deal, up from $4.325 million last year. But given his injury, Harvey can almost certainly forget about a long-term contract before he tests the market after the 2018 season. Until then? Since the Wilpon family has to find the money to lock up Noah Syndergaard and a presumably healthy Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz in the same time frame, there’s a compelling argument to trade Harvey before he bolts. Don’t think the possibility hasn’t occurred to the front office.
But none of these scenarios can be explored until the Mets get a better read on how Harvey’s shoulder responds to repeated stress. Even if he has an injury-free spring, more important tests await. Will Harvey still have the arm speed to launch that swing-and-miss slider that terrorized hitters in 2013? Will he ever find that high-90s four-seam fastball again?
And what about his demeanor on the mound? Harvey was more than just an opening-day starter — he made the Mets feel invincible.
Harvey’s descent brought out another side of him, too. He hid from the media after getting destroyed by the Washington Nationals last May and turned down all interview requests in the days after. Harvey was no leader at that point; he just looked small and frightened. The Mets had to pressure the right-hander to grow up and face the public.
We’ll see if Harvey carries himself differently. His career has yet to take off the way he imagined, which might explain his immaturity last summer. One season later, Harvey has to know the Mets have moved on.
It’s Syndergaard’s explosive fastball that carries them now. That and deGrom’s proven skill to pitch without his best heat. If Matz can stay healthy and Zack Wheeler is ready as well, the Mets will consider any contribution from Harvey as a bonus, not a necessity.
When asked about Harvey’s ceiling in 2017 and beyond, general manager Sandy Alderson said, simply, “We don’t know.”