ACA repeal could cost 18M coverage, CBO says
Office’s previous estimates about Obamacare have been far off the mark
“Given their recent track record on this specific issue, should one really take CBO’s word as gospel.” Chris Jacobs, former Republican congressional policy aide
Repealing the Affordable Care Act’s insurance subsidies and mandate to buy insurance would increase the number of uninsured people by 18 million in the following open enrollment year, resulting in a total of 32 million by 2026, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said in a report out Tuesday.
The report, done at the request of Senate leaders of both parties, follows Congress’ approval last week of a path to repeal portions of the law without Democratic support. The budget agency analyzed what would happen if changes to the insurance market remained but the subsidies and mandate were removed, as called for in the budget reconciliation measure that was vetoed by President Obama last January.
The analysis found that after the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid and the subsidies were eliminated, the number of uninsured people would increase to 27 million before it jumped to 32 million.
The predictions were as dire for insurance costs.
Premiums for plans purchased on the federal and state insurance exchanges would increase by 20% to 25% above projections for the current law during the first open enrollment year after the new law was enacted.
The increase would reach about 50% in the year after Medicaid expansion and subsidies were eliminated, the budget office report said. By 2026, premiums would double.
Some of the budget office’s previous reports on the ACA have been controversial for how far off they were in their projections of enrollment.
That isn’t because of any liberal bias.
The office is headed by Keith Hall, a conservative former economist in the George W. Bush administration who worked at the free-market Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
Chris Jacobs, a former Republican congressional policy aide, said in a blog post Tuesday that the CBO’s earlier miscalculations undercut its new message.
The budget office estimated in 2010 that the individual mandate would cause millions more people to sign up for coverage than did.
Jacobs said he doesn’t believe a partial repeal would cause a huge exodus of healthy adults from the marketplace. Even if it did, he favors a broader repeal than that studied by the CBO.
“Given their recent track record on this specific issue, should one really take CBO’s word as gospel,” wrote Jacobs, who now heads Juniper Research Group.
Supporters of the law trumpeted the release.
“Today’s non-partisan CBO report details the disastrous impact of the GOP’s efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act: Tens of millions of Americans would lose their health care, and insurance premiums would skyrocket,” said Josh Dorner, a spokesman for the Alliance of Healthcare Security, which includes health care workers and patients who support the ACA. “It’s time for Republicans to show us a plan before they rip apart the health care system and rip away the care that millions depend on.”