Some new coaches face rocky road
As he enters his first full season as LSU’s head coach, Ed Orgeron takes over a roster stocked with four elite recruiting classes in a row, giving the Tigers enough talent to immediately challenge Alabama, Clemson and others for a place in the College Football Playoff conversation.
Conversely, a number of other first-year coaches are taking on what might be politely termed rebuilding projects — in some cases, multiple-year processes for reversing a program’s recent ways.
There will be 21 new coaches in the Football Bowl Subdivision this fall. Last week, we looked at which newcomers enter the best situations, a list topped by Orgeron, South Florida’s Charlie Strong and Temple’s Geoff Collins.
In this week’s top 10 list, let’s look at the flip side to that equation. Which first-year coach takes on the toughest job in 2017?
1. MATT RHULE, BAYLOR
Baylor is simply a toxic disaster, with the latest controversy the dismissal of a newly hired strength coach — one Rhule brought along from Temple — following charges of solicitation. On the field, the Bears bring enough talent into the new staff ’s debut season to be a factor in the Big 12 race. But in many ways, negotiating the off-field mess he inherits at Baylor is by far the toughest task on Rhule’s plate.
2. JEFF BROHM, PURDUE
It’ll take years for Purdue to become a valid Big Ten contender, if such a day is even possible. Years of mismanagement have left Brohm short on talent, depth and experience, three absolute prerequisites for contention even in the weaker of the league’s two divisions. Don’t doubt Brohm’s ability to eventually transform the Boilermakers into a bowl team, but that’s not happening in 2017.
3. JEFF TEDFORD, FRESNO STATE
Tedford resurfaces at Fresno State, his alma mater, five years after a messy end to his tenure at California. He takes over perhaps the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision — a group with no direction on offense and little hope on defense, as one might expect. The long-term prognosis is fine, but Tedford has his hands full this offseason.
4. SHAWN ELLIOTT, GEORGIA STATE
There is significant potential to be found at Georgia State, thanks in no small part to its fertile recruiting base. Eventually — or hopefully — the program will stock itself with enough talent to challenge for the top spot in the Sun Belt. After cutting his teeth at Appalachian State and spending seven seasons at South Carolina, Elliott seems up to the challenge. But don’t look for any major gains in the conference standings in 2017.
5. JUSTIN WILCOX, CALIFORNIA
After opting for offense in Sonny Dykes, the program made a shift toward the defensive side of the ball in hiring Wilcox, most recently the coordinator at Wisconsin. It might be a good mix: Wilcox could match some defensive stinginess with the Golden Bears’ offensive approach to find a successful formula in the Pac-12 North Division. Still, few are expecting great things in Wilcox’s debut season.
6. TIM LESTER, WESTERN MICHIGAN
The good and bad can be laid out simply: Western Michigan went unbeaten in the regular season last season and reached the Cotton Bowl. The good? This is clearly a program poised to remain among the top tier in the MidAmerican Conference. The bad? It’ll be impossible to replicate that success, thanks in large part to a changing cast, while expectations placed on his debut will be immense.
7. JAY NORVELL, NEVADA
Norvell should have been a head coach years ago, so it’s only fair that his first opportunity comes at a Group of Five program poised to take a step forward in the Mountain West. Nevada was close under Norvell’s predecessor, Brian Polian, sandwiching two bowl berths between two losing seasons during his four-year run, so there’s obvious potential for Norvell to get the Wolf Pack back to seven or more victories in 2017.
8. RANDY EDSALL, CONNECTICUT
Edsall’s second stint with the program finds the Huskies two years removed from a bowl berth, though mired in a stretch of six losing seasons in a row. The positives: UConn plays in the easier of the two American Athletic Conference divisions — even if the gap is overblown — and Edsall knows his way around a rebuilding project. But the bad news is the Huskies need to take a major step forward offensively. Even so, this could be a surprise bowl team in 2017.
9. TOM ALLEN, INDIANA
Allen is in a good spot, relatively speaking: Indiana is fresh off a bowl berth, making him perhaps the second new hire in the last 50 years of Hoosiers football — joining Bill Lynch in 2007 — to inherit a program on the upswing. While the Big Ten Conference’s East Division will always be a handful in Indiana’s scramble for six wins, Allen is in position to lead a return trip to the postseason in his first year.
10. P.J. FLECK, MINNESOTA
Minnesota is fresh off a nine-win season, but the Gophers didn’t hire Fleck to maintain status quo; they hired him for a run at the Rose Bowl. That’s not coming in 2017, but neither is it a full-scale rebuilding project akin to Fleck’s first season at Western Michigan. Expect six to eight wins, steady contention in the Big Ten’s West Division and an around-the-clock recruiting machine unlike any in program history.