Tourney chase,
Once Big Ten behemoths, Mich. State, Indiana fight to keep dreams alive
Indiana, Michigan State, once sure things, sit on bubble.
Projecting who’s in, who’s out.
In November, usual Big Ten kingpins Michigan State and Indiana were preseason top-12 teams in the coaches poll and projected No. 3 seeds in USA TODAY Sports’ preseason bracketology.
One week from March, the Spartans (16-11, 8-6) and the Hoosiers (15-12, 5-9) are in jeopardy of missing out on the field of 68 — as at-large bids.
The Hoosiers, on a four-game losing streak, are on thin ice. Non-conference wins against projected No. 1 seeds Kansas and North Carolina keep the Hoosiers in the at-large discussion, but a Rating Percentage Index in the 90s is glaring, as is a loss to Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne. For much of the season, Tom Crean’s team has been somewhat schizophrenic.
Now it is just consistently bad, having lost six of seven. A road loss to Iowa on Tuesday would all but eliminate the Hoosiers’ at-large chances.
Michigan State is a much different story.
The Spartans have fared way better in the Big Ten, including victories against Northwestern and Minnesota. But they’re lacking the signature win — one they could have gotten Saturday at Purdue — that would put them over the top.
Now they face a rough fourgame stretch that includes two of the league’s other top teams, Wisconsin and Maryland, and they’ll have to play without No. 3 scorer and veteran Eron Harris, who is out for the season with a knee injury. That leaves coach Tom Izzo with a ridiculously young lineup with waves of postseason pressure hanging in the balance.
Not an ideal scenario, but at least a freshman-laden roster and injuries could explain a season without an NCAA tournament appearance. Indiana has less room for excuses.
Unlike fellow Big Ten bubble team Michigan, which is trending upward with wins against In- diana and Michigan State — as well as Wisconsin — it’s safe to say the Hoosiers and Spartans are in the danger zone. This week and next will be as pivotal as it gets for both squads.
MICHIGAN STATE
Profile: 16-11 (8-6) 43 RPI, 14 strength of schedule, 18 nonconference strength of schedule The good: Wins vs. Minnesota (twice), Northwestern, Wichita State, Michigan, Ohio State The bad: Loss vs. Northeastern
INDIANA
Profile: 15-12 (5-9) 90 RPI, 37 strength of schedule, 151 nonconference strength of schedule The good: Wins vs. Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Illinois The bad: Loss vs. IPFW